AMEA akademik H.\u018f.\u018fliyev ad\u0131na Co\u011frafiya \u0130nstitutu X\u0259z\u0259r d\u0259nizinin s\u0259viyy\u0259sinin bir ne\u00e7\u0259 onillikl\u0259rd\u0259n sonra k\u0259skin \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 en\u0259c\u0259yi, Bak\u0131n\u0131n h\u0259tta \u0259srin sonunad\u0259k art\u0131q liman \u015f\u0259h\u0259ri olmayaca\u011f\u0131 haqda yay\u0131lan fikirl\u0259r\u0259 m\u00fcnasib\u0259t bildirib.<\/p>\n
ARANTV.AZ<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0Trend<\/a>-\u0259 istinad\u0259n bildirir ki, \u0130nstitutun X\u0259z\u0259rin hidrometeorologiyas\u0131 \u015f\u00f6b\u0259sinin m\u00fcdiri, co\u011frafiya elml\u0259ri doktoru S\u0259id S\u0259f\u0259rov deyib ki, X\u0259z\u0259r d\u0259nizi d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u0259n iri qapal\u0131 su h\u00f6vz\u0259sidir. D\u00fcnya okean\u0131 il\u0259 birba\u015fa \u0259laq\u0259si olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn, onun s\u0259viyy\u0259si daim t\u0259r\u0259dd\u00fcdl\u0259r\u0259 m\u0259ruz qal\u0131r. Bu t\u0259r\u0259dd\u00fcdl\u0259r q\u0131sa m\u00fcdd\u0259tli v\u0259 uzun m\u00fcdd\u0259tli ola bilir. Q\u0131sa m\u00fcdd\u0259tli s\u0259viyy\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259l\u0259rin\u0259 qabarma v\u0259 \u00e7\u0259kilm\u0259 hadis\u0259l\u0259ri s\u0259b\u0259b ola bil\u0259r ki, bu da ay\u0131n qravitasiya sah\u0259si il\u0259 \u0259laq\u0259dard\u0131r. Bundan ba\u015fqa bir ne\u00e7\u0259 g\u00fcn \u0259rzind\u0259 eyni istiqam\u0259td\u0259n \u0259s\u0259n arams\u0131z g\u00fccl\u00fc k\u00fcl\u0259kl\u0259r d\u0259 d\u0259nizin bir hiss\u0259sind\u0259 s\u0259viyy\u0259nin qalxmas\u0131na, \u0259ks t\u0259r\u0259fd\u0259 is\u0259 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259sin\u0259 s\u0259b\u0259b ola bil\u0259r. Bel\u0259likl\u0259, q\u0131sam\u00fcdd\u0259tli s\u0259viyy\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259 d\u0259nizin \u00fcmumi su k\u00fctl\u0259si d\u0259yi\u015fmir, m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n bir \u0259razid\u0259 s\u0259viyy\u0259nin artmas\u0131 dig\u0259r \u0259razid\u0259 azalmas\u0131 il\u0259 m\u00fc\u015faiy\u0259t olunur. Uzunm\u00fcdd\u0259tli s\u0259viyy\u0259 t\u0259r\u0259dd\u00fcdl\u0259ri d\u0259nizin su balans\u0131n\u0131n d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259si il\u0259 \u0259laq\u0259dard\u0131r ki, bu da \u00fcmumi su k\u00fctl\u0259sinin art\u0131b-azalmas\u0131 il\u0259 m\u00fc\u015faiy\u0259t olunur:<\/p>\n “Son minillikd\u0259 X\u0259z\u0259rin \u0259n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 s\u0259viyy\u0259si X \u0259sr\u0259 t\u0259sad\u00fcf edir (okean s\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259 35 m a\u015fa\u011f\u0131). \u018fn yuxar\u0131 s\u0259viyy\u0259 is\u0259 XIV v\u0259 XVIII \u0259srl\u0259rd\u0259 qeyd\u0259 al\u0131nm\u0131\u015fd\u0131r (okean s\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259n 22 m a\u015fa\u011f\u0131). Sonrak\u0131 y\u00fczillikl\u0259rd\u0259 d\u0259nizin s\u0259viyy\u0259si \u00fcmum\u0259n artma\u011fa do\u011fru gets\u0259 d\u0259 \u0259srlik s\u0259viyy\u0259 t\u0259r\u0259dd\u00fcdl\u0259rinin amplitudu 2-4 m diapazonunda d\u0259yi\u015fmi\u015fdir. Bel\u0259likl\u0259, b\u00fct\u00fcn \u0259srl\u0259rd\u0259 X\u0259z\u0259r d\u0259nizi s\u0259viyy\u0259sinin enm\u0259 v\u0259 qalxma d\u00f6vrl\u0259ri m\u00f6vcud olmu\u015fdur. Daha do\u011frusu, X\u0259z\u0259rin s\u0259viyy\u0259si \u00f6z\u00fcn\u0259m\u0259xsus uzunm\u00fcdd\u0259tli d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259 perioduna malikdir”.<\/p>\n S.S\u0259f\u0259rov bildirib ki, X\u0259z\u0259rin s\u0259viyy\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259ki bu periodiklik \u00e7ox g\u00fcman ki, onun t\u0259bii t\u0259nziml\u0259m\u0259 x\u00fcsusiyy\u0259ti il\u0259 \u0259laq\u0259dard\u0131r. Y\u0259ni s\u0259viyy\u0259 qalxanda d\u0259nizin sah\u0259si d\u0259 artd\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan onun s\u0259thind\u0259n buxarlanma da art\u0131r ki, bu da m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n d\u00f6vrd\u0259n sonra s\u0259viyy\u0259nin t\u0259dric\u0259n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259sin\u0259 s\u0259b\u0259b olur. S\u0259viyy\u0259 n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259\u00e7arpacaq d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fd\u00fckd\u0259 is\u0259 d\u0259nizin sah\u0259si azald\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan buxarlanma da azal\u0131r ki, bu da son n\u0259tic\u0259d\u0259 s\u0259viyy\u0259nin qalxmas\u0131na g\u0259tirir.<\/p>\n M\u00fct\u0259x\u0259ssis \u0259lav\u0259 edib ki, 20-ci \u0259srd\u0259 d\u0259nizin s\u0259viyy\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259l\u0259ri 2 d\u0259f\u0259 k\u0259skin xarakter almi\u015fd\u0131r. 1930-cu ild\u0259n 1977-ci ill\u0259r\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r olan m\u00fcdd\u0259td\u0259 X\u0259z\u0259rin s\u0259viyy\u0259si 3 metr a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u0259r\u0259k, son 400 ilin m\u00fctl\u0259q minimumuna (-29 m) \u00e7atsa da, 1977-ci ild\u0259n ba\u015flayaraq k\u0259skin qalxma\u011fa ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f v\u0259 1995-ci il\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r bu art\u0131m 2,5 m t\u0259\u015fkil etmi\u015fdir. Sonrak\u0131 d\u00f6vrd\u0259 d\u0259nizin s\u0259viyy\u0259si k\u0259skin t\u0259r\u0259dd\u00fcdl\u0259r\u0259 m\u0259ruz qalmasa da, h\u0259r halda, n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259\u00e7arpacaq d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 azalma\u011fa do\u011fru gedir:<\/p>\n “K\u0259skin s\u0259viyy\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259l\u0259ri X\u0259z\u0259ryan\u0131 \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rin iqtisadiyyat\u0131na v\u0259 ekologiyas\u0131na ciddi t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259rdiyind\u0259n onlar\u0131n uzun m\u00fcdd\u0259t \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn qabaqcadan proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 b\u00f6y\u00fck \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259t k\u0259sb edir. Lakin t\u0259\u0259ss\u00fcf ki, indiy\u0259d\u0259k bu problem \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fcn laz\u0131mi h\u0259llini tapa bilm\u0259mi\u015fdir. Bununla bel\u0259, son ill\u0259rd\u0259, x\u00fcsusil\u0259 d\u0259 bir \u00e7ox q\u0259rb \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259, X\u0259z\u0259rin s\u0259viyy\u0259sinin bundan sonra daha da k\u0259skin en\u0259c\u0259yi bar\u0259d\u0259 b\u0259dbin proqnozlar verilm\u0259kd\u0259dir.<\/p>\n 2017-ci ild\u0259 Amerikan\u0131n n\u00fcfuzlu Geophysical Research Letters jurnal\u0131nda d\u0259rc olunmu\u015f m\u0259qal\u0259d\u0259 yax\u0131n 75 il \u0259rzind\u0259 X\u0259z\u0259rin s\u0259viyy\u0259sininnin 5-6 metr en\u0259c\u0259yi v\u0259 \u015eimali X\u0259z\u0259rin tamamil\u0259 quruyaca\u011f\u0131 proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r. Lakin bu yax\u0131nlarda alman v\u0259 holland aliml\u0259rinin Nature Communications Earth & Environment jurnal\u0131nda d\u0259rc olunmu\u015f m\u0259qal\u0259d\u0259 verdikl\u0259ri proqnoz is\u0259 daha qorxuludur. Bel\u0259 ki, onlar m\u00fcxt\u0259lif ssenaril\u0259r\u0259 \u0259sas\u0259n \u0259srin sonunad\u0259k X\u0259z\u0259rin s\u0259viyy\u0259sinin 9-18 metr a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u0259c\u0259yini proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131rlar. \u018fg\u0259r bu proqnozlar \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc do\u011fruldarsa, X\u0259z\u0259r regionunun ekoloji, iqtisadi v\u0259 siyasi stabilliyind\u0259 b\u00f6y\u00fck probleml\u0259r yarana bil\u0259r. Amerika v\u0259 Avropa aliml\u0259rinin verdiyi proqnozlar n\u0259 d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131d\u0131r? \u018fvv\u0259la qeyd ed\u0259k ki, q\u0131sam\u00fcdd\u0259tli proqnozlardan f\u0259rqli olaraq, uzunm\u00fcdd\u0259tli proqnozlar\u0131n \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fcdo\u011frultma faizi \u00e7ox a\u015fa\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Bu h\u0259m meteoroloji, h\u0259m d\u0259 onlara \u0259saslanan hidroloji proqnozlara aiddir. Qeyd edil\u0259n proqnoz modell\u0259rind\u0259 d\u0259nizin haz\u0131rki illik s\u0259viyy\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259l\u0259ri, d\u0259niz suyu temperaturunun artmas\u0131 n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 buxarlanman\u0131n intensivl\u0259\u015fm\u0259si, ya\u011f\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n v\u0259 \u00e7ay ax\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131 tendensiyas\u0131 \u0259sas g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcl\u00fcr. Lakin X\u0259z\u0259rin s\u0259viyy\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259l\u0259rinin yuxar\u0131da qeyd edil\u0259n uzunm\u00fcdd\u0259tli v\u0259 b\u00f6y\u00fck amplitudlu periodikliyini n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 alsaq, yax\u0131n g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259kd\u0259 v\u0259ziyy\u0259tin tam \u0259ksin\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259yini ehtimal ed\u0259 bil\u0259rik”.<\/p>\n Alim deyib ki, ke\u00e7\u0259n \u0259srin 70-ci ill\u0259rind\u0259 X\u0259z\u0259r d\u0259nizi s\u0259viyy\u0259sinin k\u0259skin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259kd\u0259 davam etm\u0259si v\u0259 aliml\u0259r t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n veril\u0259n b\u0259dbin proqnozlar s\u0259b\u0259bind\u0259n ke\u00e7mi\u015f Sovetl\u0259r \u0130ttifaq\u0131nda \u015fimala axan \u015eimali Dvina v\u0259 Pe\u00e7ora \u00e7aylar\u0131n\u0131n istiqam\u0259tini d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259kl\u0259 Volqa \u00e7ay\u0131 vasit\u0259sil\u0259 X\u0259z\u0259r d\u0259nizin\u0259 y\u00f6n\u0259ldilm\u0259si layih\u0259l\u0259ri i\u015fl\u0259nilirdi. Lakin 1977-ci ild\u0259n d\u0259niz s\u0259viyy\u0259sinin k\u0259skin qalxma\u011fa ba\u015flamas\u0131 il\u0259 bu layih\u0259l\u0259r \u00f6z aktuall\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 itirdi. T\u0259s\u0259vv\u00fcr edin ki, \u0259g\u0259r qeyd edil\u0259n layih\u0259l\u0259r h\u0259yata ke\u00e7irils\u0259ydi, onda 1995-ci il\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259rki s\u0259viyy\u0259 art\u0131m\u0131 2,5 m-d\u0259n xeyli art\u0131q olard\u0131 ki, bu da daha arzuolunmaz n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259r\u0259 g\u0259tirib \u00e7ixarard\u0131:<\/p>\n “S\u00f6z yox ki, qlobal istil\u0259\u015fm\u0259, onunla \u0259laq\u0259dar m\u00fcasir iqlim d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259l\u0259ri v\u0259 \u00e7ay ax\u0131mlar\u0131na antropogen m\u00fcdaxil\u0259l\u0259r (t\u0259s\u0259rr\u00fcfat m\u0259qs\u0259dl\u0259ri il\u0259 \u0259laq\u0259dar) X\u0259z\u0259rin s\u0259viyy\u0259sin\u0259 m\u0259nfi t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259rir. Lakin bu t\u0259sirl\u0259r d\u0259nizin s\u0259viyy\u0259sinin y\u00fczillikl\u0259rd\u0259n b\u0259ri m\u00fc\u015fahid\u0259 olunan periodik d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259 xarakterini k\u0259skin \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259 bilm\u0259z.<\/p>\n X\u0259z\u0259r d\u0259nizind\u0259 s\u0259viyy\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259l\u0259ri indiy\u0259d\u0259k h\u0259mi\u015f\u0259 m\u00f6vcud olub v\u0259 bundan sonra da olacaq, lakin s\u0259viyy\u0259sinin \u0259srin sonunad\u0259k monoton azalmaqla 9-18 m a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259si haqq\u0131nda veril\u0259n proqnozlar a\u011flabatan deyil”.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" AMEA akademik H.\u018f.\u018fliyev ad\u0131na Co\u011frafiya \u0130nstitutu X\u0259z\u0259r d\u0259nizinin s\u0259viyy\u0259sinin bir ne\u00e7\u0259 onillikl\u0259rd\u0259n sonra k\u0259skin \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 en\u0259c\u0259yi, Bak\u0131n\u0131n h\u0259tta \u0259srin sonunad\u0259k art\u0131q liman \u015f\u0259h\u0259ri olmayaca\u011f\u0131 haqda yay\u0131lan fikirl\u0259r\u0259 m\u00fcnasib\u0259t bildirib. ARANTV.AZ\u00a0\u00a0Trend-\u0259 istinad\u0259n bildirir ki, \u0130nstitutun X\u0259z\u0259rin hidrometeorologiyas\u0131 \u015f\u00f6b\u0259sinin m\u00fcdiri, co\u011frafiya elml\u0259ri doktoru S\u0259id S\u0259f\u0259rov deyib ki, X\u0259z\u0259r d\u0259nizi d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u0259n iri qapal\u0131 su h\u00f6vz\u0259sidir. D\u00fcnya okean\u0131 il\u0259 birba\u015fa \u0259laq\u0259si olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn, onun s\u0259viyy\u0259si daim t\u0259r\u0259dd\u00fcdl\u0259r\u0259 m\u0259ruz qal\u0131r. Bu t\u0259r\u0259dd\u00fcdl\u0259r q\u0131sa m\u00fcdd\u0259tli v\u0259 uzun m\u00fcdd\u0259tli ola bilir. Q\u0131sa m\u00fcdd\u0259tli s\u0259viyy\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259l\u0259rin\u0259 qabarma v\u0259 \u00e7\u0259kilm\u0259 hadis\u0259l\u0259ri s\u0259b\u0259b ola bil\u0259r ki, bu da…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":281383,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[26],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"gutentor_comment":0,"rttpg_featured_image_url":{"full":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/917501.jpg",800,600,false],"landscape":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/917501.jpg",800,600,false],"portraits":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/917501.jpg",800,600,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/917501-150x150.jpg",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/917501-300x225.jpg",300,225,true],"large":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/917501.jpg",640,480,false],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/917501.jpg",800,600,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/917501.jpg",800,600,false],"post-thumbnail":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/917501-240x172.jpg",240,172,true],"advps-thumb-one":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/917501.jpg",800,600,false]},"rttpg_author":{"display_name":"V\u00fcsal Rafiqo\u011flu","author_link":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/?author=2"},"rttpg_comment":0,"rttpg_category":"Sosial<\/a>","rttpg_excerpt":"AMEA akademik H.\u018f.\u018fliyev ad\u0131na Co\u011frafiya \u0130nstitutu X\u0259z\u0259r d\u0259nizinin s\u0259viyy\u0259sinin bir ne\u00e7\u0259 onillikl\u0259rd\u0259n sonra k\u0259skin \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 en\u0259c\u0259yi, Bak\u0131n\u0131n h\u0259tta \u0259srin sonunad\u0259k art\u0131q liman \u015f\u0259h\u0259ri olmayaca\u011f\u0131 haqda yay\u0131lan fikirl\u0259r\u0259 m\u00fcnasib\u0259t bildirib. ARANTV.AZ\u00a0\u00a0Trend-\u0259 istinad\u0259n bildirir ki, \u0130nstitutun X\u0259z\u0259rin hidrometeorologiyas\u0131 \u015f\u00f6b\u0259sinin m\u00fcdiri, co\u011frafiya elml\u0259ri doktoru S\u0259id S\u0259f\u0259rov deyib ki, X\u0259z\u0259r d\u0259nizi d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u0259n iri qapal\u0131 su h\u00f6vz\u0259sidir. 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