{"id":714315,"date":"2024-04-23T11:20:39","date_gmt":"2024-04-23T07:20:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/?p=714315"},"modified":"2024-04-23T11:20:39","modified_gmt":"2024-04-23T07:20:39","slug":"stratfor-dan-revansistl%c9%99r%c9%99-b%c9%99d-x%c9%99b%c9%99r","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/?p=714315","title":{"rendered":"STRATFOR-dan revan\u015fistl\u0259r\u0259 b\u0259d x\u0259b\u0259r"},"content":{"rendered":"

Erm\u0259nil\u0259rin Qaraba\u011fa qay\u0131d\u0131\u015f\u0131 m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259si ba\u011flan\u0131b; AB\u015e-da olan k\u0259\u015ffiyyat-analitik m\u0259rk\u0259zi separat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n \u00fcmidl\u0259rini d\u0259fn etdi<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cRusiya kontingentinin Qaraba\u011fdan \u00e7\u0131xmas\u0131n\u0131n birinci s\u0259b\u0259bi resurslarla ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. B\u0259li, bu, ki\u00e7ik h\u0259rbi resursd\u0131r, ancaq ba\u015fqa yerl\u0259rd\u0259, o c\u00fcml\u0259d\u0259n Ukrayna c\u0259bh\u0259sind\u0259 onlara h\u0259l\u0259 d\u0259 ehtiyac var\u201d. \u201cYeni M\u00fcsavat\u201d x\u0259b\u0259r verir ki, bunu AB\u015e-dak\u0131 STRATFOR k\u0259\u015ffiyyat-analitik m\u0259rk\u0259zinin analitiki Metyu Orr erm\u0259ni medias\u0131na a\u00e7\u0131qlamas\u0131nda deyib.<\/p>\n

Onun s\u00f6zl\u0259rin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, ikinci daha vacib s\u0259b\u0259b Rusiyan\u0131n C\u0259nubi Qafqazda yeni strategiya \u00e7\u0259r\u00e7iv\u0259sind\u0259 az\u0259rbaycanl\u0131lara n\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r g\u00fcv\u0259ndiyini v\u0259 ikit\u0259r\u0259fli m\u00fcnasib\u0259tl\u0259rin n\u0259 d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 s\u0131x oldu\u011funu g\u00f6st\u0259rm\u0259y\u0259 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn q\u0259d\u0259r haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu g\u00f6st\u0259rm\u0259kdir.\u00a0\u201cBu, Rusiyan\u0131n Erm\u0259nistana y\u00f6n\u0259lmi\u015f siqnal\u0131 idi. 2020-ci il (10 noyabr) s\u0259n\u0259di realla\u015fmayandan sonra Moskvan\u0131n \u0259vv\u0259lki strategiyas\u0131 tamamil\u0259 iflasa u\u011frad\u0131. Bundan sonra Moskva regionda b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fckl\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycan v\u0259 T\u00fcrkiy\u0259 il\u0259 s\u0131x m\u00fcnasib\u0259tl\u0259r\u0259 \u0259saslanan strategiyaya \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fck verdi\u201d, – dey\u0259 ekspert vur\u011fulay\u0131b. \u201cBeyin m\u0259rk\u0259zi\u201dnin analitiki erm\u0259nil\u0259rin k\u00fctl\u0259vi \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 Qaraba\u011fa qay\u0131d\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnd\u0259 \u00e7ox b\u00f6y\u00fck d\u0259yi\u015fiklik g\u00f6rm\u00fcr,\u00a0 onun fikrinc\u0259, bu m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259 praktik olaraq ba\u011flan\u0131b. \u201cErm\u0259nil\u0259r Qaraba\u011fa qay\u0131tmaq ist\u0259s\u0259l\u0259r bel\u0259, onlar \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn x\u00fcsusi m\u00fcdafi\u0259 mexanizml\u0259ri olmayacaq\u201d,<\/strong>\u00a0– Metyu Or \u0259lav\u0259 edib.<\/p>\n

Aprelin 5-d\u0259 Br\u00fcsseld\u0259 ke\u00e7iril\u0259n \u00fc\u00e7t\u0259r\u0259fli g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fd\u0259 d\u0259 Avropa Komissiyas\u0131n\u0131n Prezidenti Ursula fon der Leyen a\u00e7\u0131qlad\u0131 ki, Qaraba\u011f\u0131 t\u0259rk ed\u0259n erm\u0259nil\u0259r \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn 30 milyon avro ayr\u0131l\u0131b. O, Xank\u0259ndi v\u0259 \u0259traf \u0259razil\u0259rd\u0259n k\u00f6\u00e7\u0259n erm\u0259nil\u0259ri Erm\u0259nistan iqtisadiyyat\u0131na inteqrasiya etm\u0259y\u0259 \u00e7a\u011f\u0131rd\u0131. Eyni m\u00f6vqed\u0259n AB\u015e d\u00f6vl\u0259t katibi Entoni Blinken d\u0259 \u00e7\u0131x\u0131\u015f etdi. Bel\u0259likl\u0259, Q\u0259rb erm\u0259nil\u0259rin Qaraba\u011fa qay\u0131d\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n t\u0259r\u0259fdar\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 n\u00fcmayi\u015f etdirdi, onlar\u0131n Erm\u0259nistana adaptasiyas\u0131n\u0131 d\u0259st\u0259kl\u0259di. Bunun ard\u0131nca rus h\u0259rbi kontigentinin regionu t\u0259rk etm\u0259si b\u00fct\u00fcn g\u00f6zl\u0259ntil\u0259rin \u00fcst\u00fcnd\u0259n x\u0259tt \u00e7\u0259kdi v\u0259 erm\u0259nil\u0259r \u00e7\u0259tin ki Qaraba\u011fa qay\u0131ts\u0131nlar. Bu da da\u015fnak\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n, revan\u015fist g\u00fccl\u0259rin, separat\u00e7\u0131 q\u00fcvv\u0259l\u0259rin, \u201cartsax\u201d ideyas\u0131n\u0131 t\u0259bli\u011f ed\u0259nl\u0259rin \u00fcmidl\u0259rini d\u0259fn etdi. Bel\u0259likl\u0259, h\u0259m Q\u0259rbin yana\u015fmas\u0131, h\u0259m s\u00fclhm\u0259raml\u0131 q\u00fcvv\u0259l\u0259rin gedi\u015fi, h\u0259m Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n diplomatik u\u011furlar\u0131, \u0259n \u0259sas\u0131 is\u0259 erm\u0259nil\u0259rin \u00f6zl\u0259rinin A\u011fd\u0259r\u0259y\u0259, Xocav\u0259nd\u0259 qay\u0131tmaq ist\u0259m\u0259m\u0259l\u0259ri, h\u0259tta ged\u0259nl\u0259rin 10 mind\u0259n \u00e7oxunun Erm\u0259nistan\u0131 da t\u0259rk ed\u0259r\u0259k ba\u015fqa \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259r\u0259 \u00fcz tutmas\u0131 revan\u015fist dair\u0259l\u0259rin, kils\u0259nin 200 illik s\u0259rs\u0259m ideyalar\u0131n\u0131 m\u0259hv etdi.<\/p>\n

\"Asif<\/p>\n

\u00a0Asif N\u0259rimanl\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n

Siyasi \u015f\u0259rh\u00e7i Asif N\u0259rimanl\u0131ya g\u00f6r\u0259, h\u0259r iki t\u0259r\u0259f – Rusiya v\u0259 AB\u015e anlay\u0131r ki, Qaraba\u011fda art\u0131q v\u0259ziyy\u0259ti d\u0259yi\u015fdir\u0259 bilm\u0259y\u0259c\u0259kl\u0259r, \u201cg\u00fcnah ke\u00e7isi\u201d axtar\u0131\u015f\u0131 da bundan qaynaqlan\u0131r:<\/strong>\u00a0\u201cS\u00fclhm\u0259raml\u0131lar\u0131n \u00e7\u0131xmas\u0131ndan “Rusiyan\u0131 etibars\u0131zla\u015fd\u0131rmaq” \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn istifad\u0259 ed\u0259n AB\u015e-da, \u00fcmumilikd\u0259 Q\u0259rbd\u0259 narahatl\u0131q yaradan dig\u0259r m\u0259qam erm\u0259ni \u0259halisinin geriy\u0259 qay\u0131d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn son imkan\u0131n da s\u0131radan \u00e7\u0131xmas\u0131d\u0131r. Erm\u0259nil\u0259rin geri qay\u0131tmas\u0131 praktiki olaraq \u00e7\u0259tin olsa da, s\u00fclhm\u0259raml\u0131lar\u0131n Qaraba\u011fda qalmas\u0131 bu \u201cqap\u0131n\u0131 aral\u0131\u201d saxlama\u011fa imkan verirdi v\u0259 h\u0259r iki t\u0259r\u0259f – Q\u0259rb v\u0259 Rusiya \u201cerm\u0259nil\u0259rin qay\u0131tmas\u0131\u201d ideyas\u0131ndan Az\u0259rbaycana qar\u015f\u0131 t\u0259zyiq m\u0259qs\u0259dil\u0259 istifad\u0259 edirdi. \u0130ndi bu \u201cqap\u0131\u201d da ba\u011fland\u0131. Zaxarovan\u0131n \u201cQaraba\u011f erm\u0259nil\u0259rinin h\u00fcquqlar\u0131n\u0131 v\u0259 t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizliyini t\u0259min etm\u0259k \u015f\u0259rti il\u0259 geri qay\u0131tmaq imkan\u0131 olmal\u0131d\u0131r, Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n bununla ba\u011fl\u0131 q\u0259bul etdiyi reinteqrasiya proqram\u0131n\u0131 “d\u0259st\u0259kl\u0259yirik” a\u00e7\u0131qlamas\u0131 da ittihamlardan yay\u0131nmaq xarakteri da\u015f\u0131y\u0131r”. Ekspert istisna etmir ki, bu prosesd\u0259 Q\u0259rb v\u0259 Rusiyadan \u201cerm\u0259ni \u0259halisin\u0259\u201d veril\u0259n m\u00fcxt\u0259lif d\u0259st\u0259k b\u0259yanatlar\u0131 davam ed\u0259c\u0259k, h\u0259r\u00e7\u0259nd bu b\u0259yanatlar\u0131n, fikirl\u0259rin Az\u0259rbaycan s\u0259rh\u0259dl\u0259ri daxilind\u0259 v\u0259ziyy\u0259t\u0259 t\u0259sir etm\u0259si, yaxud n\u0259yis\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259si imkan\u0131 art\u0131q yoxdur.<\/p>\n

\"Samir<\/p>\n

Samir \u018fs\u0259dli<\/strong><\/p>\n

V\u0259t\u0259nda\u015f H\u0259mr\u0259yliyi Partiyas\u0131 M\u0259rk\u0259zi \u0130cra Aparat\u0131n\u0131n r\u0259hb\u0259ri Samir \u018fs\u0259dli hesab edir ki, erm\u0259nil\u0259rin Qaraba\u011fa qay\u0131d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn b\u00fct\u00fcn b\u0259han\u0259l\u0259r, r\u0131\u00e7aqlar \u0259ld\u0259n \u00e7\u0131xd\u0131. Onun fikrinc\u0259, bundan sonra \u00f6z ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ev\u0259 g\u0259lm\u0259k ist\u0259y\u0259n dinc erm\u0259ni Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n \u015f\u0259rtl\u0259rini q\u0259bul etm\u0259lidir: \u201c\u0130ndi n\u0259 rus \u0259sg\u0259ri onlara t\u0259minat\u00e7\u0131d\u0131r, n\u0259 Fransa TIR-lar\u0131 burada “blokada” \u015fousunu davam etdir\u0259 bil\u0259r, n\u0259 AB\u015e, n\u0259 Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n \u00f6z\u00fc t\u0259l\u0259b ed\u0259 bilm\u0259z ki, bu adamlar qeyd-\u015f\u0259rtsiz qaytar\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnki qeyd-\u015f\u0259rtsiz t\u0259l\u0259bi ir\u0259li s\u00fcrm\u0259kl\u0259 onlar\u0131n v\u0259t\u0259nda\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 q\u0259bul etm\u0259d\u0259n Qaraba\u011fda ya\u015famas\u0131n\u0131n t\u0259min edilm\u0259si ist\u0259nilirdi. Amma Az\u0259rbaycan d\u00f6vl\u0259ti konkret t\u0259klifl\u0259r s\u0259sl\u0259ndirib: pasportumuzu al, v\u0259t\u0259nda\u015f ol, qanunlar\u0131m\u0131zla ya\u015fa, o zaman ham\u0131 kimi eyni h\u00fcquqlara malik ol. D\u00fcn\u0259n\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r \u00fcmid b\u0259sl\u0259yirdil\u0259r ki, Rusiya, ya da Q\u0259rb Bak\u0131ya t\u0259zyiq etm\u0259kl\u0259 onlar\u0131 geri qaytaracaq, separat\u00e7\u0131lar da Xank\u0259ndid\u0259ki binada oturub na\u011f\u0131llar dan\u0131\u015facaqlar. Bitdi o d\u00f6n\u0259m. Qaraba\u011fda erm\u0259ni m\u00f6vzusu qapand\u0131”. Partiya funksionerini d\u00fcnyan\u0131n d\u0259yi\u015fdiyi, regionda yeni reall\u0131qlar yarand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, d\u0259hlizl\u0259r, logistikalar, d\u0259nizl\u0259r u\u011frunda m\u00fcbariz\u0259 getdiyini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcr v\u0259 deyir ki, Qaraba\u011fda erm\u0259ni m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259si b\u00f6y\u00fck g\u00fccl\u0259r \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn art\u0131q \u201ckart\u201d olaraq \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tini itirib: \u201c\u0130ndi b\u00f6y\u00fck geopolitik qar\u015f\u0131durmalar, strateji m\u00fcharib\u0259l\u0259r gedir. 30 il \u201cerm\u0259ni kart\u0131” istifad\u0259 edildi, at\u0131ld\u0131. Bunu erm\u0259nil\u0259r d\u0259 d\u0259rk edirl\u0259r. \u0130r\u0259vanda olan hakimiyy\u0259t d\u0259 anlay\u0131r ki, qay\u0131d\u0131\u015f, muxtariyy\u0259t kimi s\u00f6hb\u0259tl\u0259r blefdir”.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Erm\u0259nil\u0259rin Qaraba\u011fa qay\u0131d\u0131\u015f\u0131 m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259si ba\u011flan\u0131b; AB\u015e-da olan k\u0259\u015ffiyyat-analitik m\u0259rk\u0259zi separat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n \u00fcmidl\u0259rini d\u0259fn etdi \u201cRusiya kontingentinin Qaraba\u011fdan \u00e7\u0131xmas\u0131n\u0131n birinci s\u0259b\u0259bi resurslarla ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. B\u0259li, bu, ki\u00e7ik h\u0259rbi resursd\u0131r, ancaq ba\u015fqa yerl\u0259rd\u0259, o c\u00fcml\u0259d\u0259n Ukrayna c\u0259bh\u0259sind\u0259 onlara h\u0259l\u0259 d\u0259 ehtiyac var\u201d. \u201cYeni M\u00fcsavat\u201d x\u0259b\u0259r verir ki, bunu AB\u015e-dak\u0131 STRATFOR k\u0259\u015ffiyyat-analitik m\u0259rk\u0259zinin analitiki Metyu Orr erm\u0259ni medias\u0131na a\u00e7\u0131qlamas\u0131nda deyib. Onun s\u00f6zl\u0259rin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, ikinci daha vacib s\u0259b\u0259b Rusiyan\u0131n C\u0259nubi Qafqazda yeni strategiya \u00e7\u0259r\u00e7iv\u0259sind\u0259 az\u0259rbaycanl\u0131lara n\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r g\u00fcv\u0259ndiyini v\u0259 ikit\u0259r\u0259fli m\u00fcnasib\u0259tl\u0259rin n\u0259 d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 s\u0131x oldu\u011funu g\u00f6st\u0259rm\u0259y\u0259 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn q\u0259d\u0259r haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu g\u00f6st\u0259rm\u0259kdir.\u00a0\u201cBu, Rusiyan\u0131n Erm\u0259nistana y\u00f6n\u0259lmi\u015f siqnal\u0131 idi.…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":714316,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"gutentor_comment":0,"rttpg_featured_image_url":{"full":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/1e471b91a0de5aed74195609efc0c76c.jpg",700,467,false],"landscape":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/1e471b91a0de5aed74195609efc0c76c.jpg",700,467,false],"portraits":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/1e471b91a0de5aed74195609efc0c76c.jpg",700,467,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/1e471b91a0de5aed74195609efc0c76c-500x280.jpg",500,280,true],"medium":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/1e471b91a0de5aed74195609efc0c76c-547x365.jpg",547,365,true],"large":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/1e471b91a0de5aed74195609efc0c76c.jpg",640,427,false],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/1e471b91a0de5aed74195609efc0c76c.jpg",700,467,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/1e471b91a0de5aed74195609efc0c76c.jpg",700,467,false],"post-thumbnail":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/1e471b91a0de5aed74195609efc0c76c-240x172.jpg",240,172,true],"advps-thumb-one":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/1e471b91a0de5aed74195609efc0c76c.jpg",700,467,false]},"rttpg_author":{"display_name":"V\u00fcsal Rafiqo\u011flu","author_link":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/?author=2"},"rttpg_comment":0,"rttpg_category":"Siyas\u0259t<\/a>","rttpg_excerpt":"Erm\u0259nil\u0259rin Qaraba\u011fa qay\u0131d\u0131\u015f\u0131 m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259si ba\u011flan\u0131b; AB\u015e-da olan k\u0259\u015ffiyyat-analitik m\u0259rk\u0259zi separat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n \u00fcmidl\u0259rini d\u0259fn etdi \u201cRusiya kontingentinin Qaraba\u011fdan \u00e7\u0131xmas\u0131n\u0131n birinci s\u0259b\u0259bi resurslarla ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. B\u0259li, bu, ki\u00e7ik h\u0259rbi resursd\u0131r, ancaq ba\u015fqa yerl\u0259rd\u0259, o c\u00fcml\u0259d\u0259n Ukrayna c\u0259bh\u0259sind\u0259 onlara h\u0259l\u0259 d\u0259 ehtiyac var\u201d. \u201cYeni M\u00fcsavat\u201d x\u0259b\u0259r verir ki, bunu AB\u015e-dak\u0131 STRATFOR k\u0259\u015ffiyyat-analitik m\u0259rk\u0259zinin analitiki Metyu Orr erm\u0259ni medias\u0131na a\u00e7\u0131qlamas\u0131nda deyib.…","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/714315"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=714315"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/714315\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/714316"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=714315"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=714315"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=714315"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}