{"id":799039,"date":"2025-04-11T10:41:05","date_gmt":"2025-04-11T06:41:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/?p=799039"},"modified":"2025-04-11T10:41:05","modified_gmt":"2025-04-11T06:41:05","slug":"bizi-gozl%c9%99y%c9%99n-inflyasiya-kimin-proqnozuna-inanaq","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/?p=799039","title":{"rendered":"Bizi g\u00f6zl\u0259y\u0259n inflyasiya \u2013 kimin proqnozuna inanaq?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ekspert: \u201cH\u00f6kum\u0259tin inflyasiya proqnozlar\u0131n\u0131n haz\u0131rk\u0131 \u015f\u0259raitd\u0259 \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc do\u011frultma ehtimal\u0131 50 faizin alt\u0131ndad\u0131r\u201d<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

2025-ci ilin mart ay\u0131nda Az\u0259rbaycanda illik inflyasiya 5,9 faiz\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259lib. \u201cYeni M\u00fcsavat\u201d D\u00f6vl\u0259t Statistika Komit\u0259sin\u0259 istinad\u0259n x\u0259b\u0259r verir ki, 2024-c\u00fc ilin mart ay\u0131na nisb\u0259t\u0259n qida m\u0259hsullar\u0131, i\u00e7kil\u0259r v\u0259 t\u00fct\u00fcn m\u0259mulatlar\u0131n\u0131n qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri 6,5 faiz, qeyri-qida m\u0259hsullar\u0131n\u0131n qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri 2,8 faiz, \u0259haliy\u0259 g\u00f6st\u0259rilmi\u015f \u00f6d\u0259ni\u015fli xidm\u0259tl\u0259rin d\u0259y\u0259ri is\u0259 7,5 faiz art\u0131b.<\/strong><\/p>\n

2025-ci ilin mart ay\u0131nda istehlak qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri indeksi \u0259vv\u0259lki aya nisb\u0259t\u0259n 0,6 faiz, yanvar-mart aylar\u0131nda is\u0259 \u0259vv\u0259lki ilin m\u00fcvafiq d\u00f6vr\u00fcn\u0259 nisb\u0259t\u0259n 5,6 faiz y\u00fcks\u0259lib.<\/p>\n

\u00d6t\u0259n ay qida m\u0259hsullar\u0131, i\u00e7kil\u0259r v\u0259 t\u00fct\u00fcn m\u0259mulatlar\u0131n\u0131n qiym\u0259tind\u0259 \u0259vv\u0259lki aya nisb\u0259t\u0259n 1,2 faiz, \u00f6t\u0259n ilin eyni ay\u0131na nisb\u0259t\u0259n 6,5 faiz, yanvar-mart aylar\u0131nda is\u0259 \u0259vv\u0259lki ilin m\u00fcvafiq d\u00f6vr\u00fcn\u0259 nisb\u0259t\u0259n 5,7 faiz bahala\u015fma qeyd\u0259 al\u0131n\u0131b. Bu zaman \u0259rzaq m\u0259hsullar\u0131 fevralla m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 1,2 faiz, 2024-c\u00fc ilin mart\u0131na n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259n 6,7 faiz, birinci r\u00fcbd\u0259 \u0259vv\u0259lki ilin eyni d\u00f6vr\u00fcn\u0259 n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259n 6 faiz bahala\u015f\u0131b. Ayl\u0131q ifad\u0259d\u0259 \u0259n \u00e7ox bahala\u015fma meyv\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259 – 3,8 faiz v\u0259 t\u0259r\u0259v\u0259zl\u0259rd\u0259 – 3,9 faiz qeyd\u0259 al\u0131n\u0131b.<\/p>\n

Cari ilin mart ay\u0131nda \u0259vv\u0259lki aya nisb\u0259t\u0259n ayr\u0131-ayr\u0131 qida m\u0259hsullar\u0131ndan daha \u00e7ox bahala\u015fma bal\u0131q v\u0259 bal\u0131q m\u0259hsullar\u0131n\u0131n, s\u00fcd v\u0259 s\u00fcd m\u0259hsullar\u0131n\u0131n, s\u00fcfr\u0259 marqarininin, k\u0259r\u0259, g\u00fcn\u0259baxan v\u0259 qar\u011f\u0131dal\u0131 ya\u011flar\u0131n\u0131n, limonun, porta\u011fal\u0131n, banan\u0131n, alman\u0131n, armudun, kivinin, qozun, f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n, k\u0259l\u0259min, brokkolinin, pomidorun, \u015firin bib\u0259rin, bad\u0131mcan\u0131n, s\u00fcfr\u0259 \u00e7u\u011fundurunun, yerk\u00f6k\u00fcn\u00fcn, sar\u0131msa\u011f\u0131n, so\u011fan\u0131n, kartofun, q\u0259hv\u0259nin, kakaonun, qazl\u0131 v\u0259 qazs\u0131z sular\u0131n, siqaretin, ucuzla\u015fma is\u0259 unun, yumurtan\u0131n, g\u00f6y\u0259rtinin, xiyar\u0131n qiym\u0259tl\u0259rind\u0259 m\u00fc\u015fahid\u0259 olunub.
\nHesabat d\u00f6vr\u00fcnd\u0259 qeyri-qida m\u0259hsullar\u0131n\u0131n qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri \u0259vv\u0259lki aya nisb\u0259t\u0259n 0,1 faiz, \u0259vv\u0259lki ilin eynin d\u00f6vr\u00fc il\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 2,8 faiz, yanvar-mart aylar\u0131nda is\u0259 \u0259vv\u0259lki ilin m\u00fcvafiq d\u00f6vr\u00fcn\u0259 nisb\u0259t\u0259n 2,7 faiz bahala\u015f\u0131b. Mart ay\u0131nda \u0259vv\u0259lki ayla m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 qeyri-qida m\u0259hsullar\u0131ndan bahala\u015fma k\u0259rpicin, sementin, ortopedik d\u00f6\u015f\u0259kl\u0259rin, mebell\u0259rin, z\u0259rg\u0259rlik m\u0259mulatlar\u0131n\u0131n, ucuzla\u015fma is\u0259 m\u0259i\u015f\u0259t cihazlar\u0131n\u0131n, mobil telefonlar\u0131n, televizorlar\u0131n qiym\u0259tl\u0259rind\u0259 m\u00fc\u015fahid\u0259 olunub.<\/p>\n

\u00d6d\u0259ni\u015fli xidm\u0259tl\u0259rin d\u0259y\u0259ri mart ay\u0131nda fevral ay\u0131 il\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 0,2 faiz, \u0259vv\u0259lki ilin eyni ay\u0131na n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259n 7,5 faiz, yanvar-martda 2024-c\u00fc ilin eyni d\u00f6vr\u00fcn\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259 is\u0259 7,8 faiz art\u0131b.<\/p>\n

R\u0259smi statistikadan ayd\u0131n olur ki, fevral ay\u0131 il\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 mart ay\u0131nda Az\u0259rbaycanda inflyasiya ciddi \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 s\u00fcr\u0259tl\u0259nib. Bel\u0259 ki, fevralda illik inflyasiya 5,5 faiz olmu\u015fdu, bu is\u0259 martda bahala\u015fma prosesinin 0,4 faiz b\u0259ndi s\u00fcr\u0259tl\u0259ndiyini g\u00f6st\u0259rir. Bu zaman daha \u00e7ox bahala\u015fma \u0259rzaq m\u0259hsullar\u0131nda qeyd\u0259 al\u0131n\u0131b. Fevralda illik g\u00f6st\u0259rici 6 faiz olmu\u015fdusa, martda bu, 6,5 faiz\u0259 \u00e7at\u0131b. Halbuki qlobal bazarlardak\u0131 qiym\u0259t d\u0259yi\u015fikliyini \u0259ks etdir\u0259n BMT K\u0259nd T\u0259s\u0259rr\u00fcfat\u0131 v\u0259 \u018frzaq T\u0259\u015fkilat\u0131n\u0131n hesablad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0259rzaq qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri indeksi fevralla m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 dem\u0259k olar ki, d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259z qal\u0131b.<\/p>\n

Son 2 h\u0259ft\u0259d\u0259 bir s\u0131ra beyn\u0259lxalq qurumlar\u0131n bu il Az\u0259rbaycanda g\u00f6zl\u0259nil\u0259n inflyasiya s\u0259viyy\u0259si il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 proqnozlar\u0131na art\u0131m istiqam\u0259tli d\u0259yi\u015fiklikl\u0259r edilib. Bel\u0259 ki, Beyn\u0259lxalq Valyuta Fondu (IMF) Az\u0259rbaycanda inflyasiyan\u0131n 2025-2029-cu ill\u0259rd\u0259 M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank\u0131n h\u0259d\u0259f diapozununda (4\u00b12 faiz) qalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131b. Lakin Fond 2025-ci il \u00fczr\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycanda inflyasiyan\u0131n 5,7 faiz, 2026-c\u0131 ild\u0259 4,5 faiz, 2027-2029-cu ill\u0259rd\u0259 is\u0259 4 faiz t\u0259\u015fkil ed\u0259c\u0259yini g\u00f6zl\u0259yir. Bu is\u0259 o dem\u0259kdir ki, Fond 2025-ci il \u00fczr\u0259 proqnozunu \u0259vv\u0259lki proqnozla (2024,oktyabr) m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 0,7 faiz b\u0259ndi art\u0131r\u0131b.<\/p>\n

IMF inflyasiyan\u0131n AMB-nin h\u0259d\u0259f diapazonunda sabit qalaca\u011f\u0131 proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan monetar siyas\u0259ti sabit saxlama\u011f\u0131 t\u00f6vsiy\u0259 edib: \u201cSon d\u00f6vrl\u0259rd\u0259 inflyasiyan\u0131n art\u0131m\u0131, t\u0259nziml\u0259n\u0259n qiym\u0259tl\u0259rd\u0259ki d\u00fcz\u0259li\u015fi bir q\u0259d\u0259r \u0259ks etdirir. Haz\u0131rk\u0131 v\u0259 proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lan inflyasiyan\u0131 n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 alaraq, AMB-nin u\u00e7ot d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259si real m\u0259nada \u00fcmumilikd\u0259 neytral olaraq qal\u0131r. Lakin h\u0259m daxili (b\u00fcdc\u0259 x\u0259rcl\u0259rinin artmas\u0131 v\u0259 g\u00fccl\u00fc kredit art\u0131m\u0131ndan ir\u0259lil\u0259y\u0259n t\u0259l\u0259bat t\u0259zyiql\u0259ri), h\u0259m d\u0259 xarici (geosiyasi g\u0259rginlikl\u0259r, qlobal t\u0259chizat z\u0259ncirl\u0259rinin pozulmas\u0131) inflyasiya riskl\u0259ri m\u00f6vcuddur. M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank bu riskl\u0259ri yax\u0131ndan izl\u0259m\u0259li, diqq\u0259tli olmal\u0131 v\u0259 bu riskl\u0259r realla\u015farsa, reaksiya verm\u0259y\u0259 haz\u0131r olmal\u0131d\u0131r”.<\/p>\n

Asiya \u0130nki\u015faf Bank\u0131 (ADB) da Az\u0259rbaycan \u00fczr\u0259 inflyasiya proqnozunu 0,4 faiz b\u0259ndi art\u0131r\u0131b. Bel\u0259 ki, ADB 2025-ci il \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn orta illik inflyasiya proqnozunu 4,2 faiz s\u0259viyy\u0259sin\u0259 qald\u0131r\u0131b, 2026-c\u0131 il \u00fczr\u0259 is\u0259 3,5 faiz m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n edib: “2024-c\u00fc ilin iyun ay\u0131nda t\u0259nziml\u0259n\u0259n yanacaq qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 dig\u0259r daxili qiym\u0259tl\u0259r\u0259 d\u0259 t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259rm\u0259y\u0259 davam edir. Bundan \u0259lav\u0259, 2025-ci ilin yanvar ay\u0131nda su, elektrik enerjisi v\u0259 b\u0259zi dig\u0259r kommunal xidm\u0259tl\u0259rin tarifl\u0259ri art\u0131r\u0131l\u0131b ki, bu da inflyasiya t\u0259zyiql\u0259rini g\u00fccl\u0259ndirib. \u0130nflyasiyan\u0131 2\u20136 faiz h\u0259d\u0259f diapazonunda saxlamaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank 2024-c\u00fc ilin may ay\u0131ndan b\u0259ri faiz d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259sini 7.25 faiz s\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259 sabit saxlay\u0131r.<\/p>\n

2025-ci ild\u0259 qlobal tarif d\u0259yi\u015fiklikl\u0259rinin m\u00fcmk\u00fcn t\u0259sirl\u0259ri n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 idxal qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin artmas\u0131 inflyasiyan\u0131n y\u00fcks\u0259lm\u0259sin\u0259 s\u0259b\u0259b ola bil\u0259r. 2026-c\u0131 ild\u0259 is\u0259 daha z\u0259if iqtisadi art\u0131m v\u0259 \u0259vv\u0259lki inzibati qiym\u0259t art\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n t\u0259sirinin azalmas\u0131 inflyasiya s\u0259viyy\u0259sinin enm\u0259sin\u0259 g\u0259tirib \u00e7\u0131xara bil\u0259r”(APA).<\/p>\n

Qeyd ed\u0259k ki, Az\u0259rbaycanda bu il g\u00f6zl\u0259nil\u0259n inflyasiya s\u0259viyy\u0259sin\u0259 dair \u00e7oxsayl\u0131 proqnozlar bir-birind\u0259n ciddi \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 f\u0259rql\u0259nm\u0259kd\u0259dir. X\u00fcsusil\u0259 bu sah\u0259d\u0259 m\u00fcxt\u0259lif beyn\u0259lxalq t\u0259\u015fkilatlar f\u0259rqli proqnozlar ir\u0259li s\u00fcr\u00fcr. \u0130MF v\u0259 ADB-d\u0259n \u0259lav\u0259, bir s\u0131ra dig\u0259r analitik m\u0259rk\u0259zl\u0259rin proqnozlar\u0131 da bir-birind\u0259n f\u0259rqlidir. Bel\u0259 ki, “Fitch Solutions\u201d (FS) \u015firk\u0259tinin hesabat\u0131na \u0259sas\u0259n 2025-ci ild\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycanda inflyasiya 4,52 faiz t\u0259\u015fkil ed\u0259c\u0259k. Birg\u0259 d\u0259rc edil\u0259n hesabatda \u201cBloomberg Consensus\u201d is\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycanda bu il inflyasiyan\u0131 5,05 faiz proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131b.<\/p>\n

Niderland\u0131n \u0259n b\u00f6y\u00fck bank qrupu olan “ING Group” Az\u0259rbaycanda orta illik inflyasiyan\u0131n 2025-ci ild\u0259 5,2 faiz, 2026-c\u0131 ild\u0259 is\u0259 4,9 faiz t\u0259\u015fkil ed\u0259c\u0259yini g\u00f6zl\u0259yir.<\/p>\n

BMT v\u0259 D\u00fcnya Bank\u0131 Az\u0259rbaycanda inflyasiyan\u0131n daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131r. BMT 2025-ci il \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn inflyasiyan\u0131n 3,6 faiz, 2026-c\u0131 il \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn is\u0259 3,1 faiz olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 t\u0259xmin edir. D\u00fcnya Bank\u0131 h\u0259r iki il \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn inflyasiyan\u0131 2,3 faizs\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259 qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirir.<\/p>\n

Beyn\u0259lxalq reytinq agentlikl\u0259ri, x\u00fcsus\u0259n d\u0259 \u201cS&P Global\u201d v\u0259 \u201cMoody’s\u201d Az\u0259rbaycanda inflyasiyan\u0131n 2025-ci ild\u0259 4 faiz, 2026-c\u0131 ild\u0259 is\u0259 3 faiz s\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zl\u0259yirl\u0259r.<\/p>\n

Az\u0259rbaycan h\u00f6kum\u0259tinin t\u0259qdim etdiyi proqnozlar yerli bazarda inflyasiyan\u0131n m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 t\u0259nziml\u0259n\u0259c\u0259yini v\u0259 d\u00f6vl\u0259tin iqtisadi siyas\u0259tl\u0259rinin inflyasiya s\u0259viyy\u0259sini sabit tutma\u011fa k\u00f6m\u0259k ed\u0259c\u0259yin\u0259 \u0259saslan\u0131r. Bel\u0259 ki, \u0130qtisadiyyat Nazirliyi 2025-ci ild\u0259 inflyasiyan\u0131n 4,6 faiz olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131r. Az\u0259rbaycan M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank\u0131 is\u0259 bu g\u00f6st\u0259ricini 5,5 faiz s\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259 t\u0259xmin edir. H\u0259r iki qurum \u00f6lk\u0259 iqtisadiyyat\u0131n\u0131n stabill\u0259\u015fm\u0259sini v\u0259 m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n iqtisadi siyas\u0259tl\u0259rin t\u0259tbiqini n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 alaraq inflyasiyan\u0131n art\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n nisb\u0259t\u0259n m\u00fclayim olaca\u011f\u0131 q\u0259na\u0259tin\u0259 g\u0259libl\u0259r. Lakin h\u0259r iki proqnoz AB\u015e-\u0131n yeni administrasiyas\u0131n\u0131n tarif siyas\u0259tini realla\u015fd\u0131rma\u011fa ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan \u0259vv\u0259l haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank\u0131n u\u00e7ot d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259si il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 n\u00f6vb\u0259ti q\u0259rar\u0131n\u0131 elan ed\u0259rk\u0259n inflyasiya g\u00f6zl\u0259ntil\u0259rin\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fiklik ed\u0259c\u0259yi ehtimal\u0131 b\u00f6y\u00fckd\u00fcr. Bel\u0259 ki, haz\u0131rda Az\u0259rbaycanda inflyasiyaya t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259r\u0259c\u0259k \u0259sas amill\u0259r \u2013 xarici faktorlar ciddi riskl\u0259r formala\u015fd\u0131r\u0131r. Donald Tramp\u0131n aprelin \u0259vv\u0259lind\u0259n r\u00fcsumlarla ba\u011fl\u0131 q\u0259rarlar\u0131, h\u0259m\u00e7inin OPEK+ \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rinin hasilat\u0131 art\u0131rmaq tempini k\u0259skin s\u00fcr\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259k q\u0259rar\u0131 d\u00fcnya neft bazar\u0131nda qiym\u0259tl\u0259rin 62-63 dollar h\u0259ddin\u0259 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcb. O c\u00fcml\u0259d\u0259n Az\u0259rbaycan neftinin qiym\u0259ti b\u00fcdc\u0259d\u0259 n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259 tutulan 70 dollarl\u0131q h\u0259dd\u0259n 5 dollara a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya enib. Bundan \u0259lav\u0259, \u00f6lk\u0259nin ikinci \u0259n b\u00f6y\u00fck ixrac m\u0259hsulu olan t\u0259bii qaz\u0131n \u0259sas sat\u0131\u015f bazar\u0131nda \u2013 Avropada yanvardan b\u0259ri \u0259n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 s\u0259viyy\u0259y\u0259 – 400 dolla civar\u0131na q\u0259d\u0259r azal\u0131b. Neft-qaz bazar\u0131 haz\u0131rda AB\u015e-la \u00c7in aras\u0131nda getdikc\u0259 alovlanan tarif-ticar\u0259t m\u00fcharib\u0259sinin sonuncunun iqtisadiyyat\u0131na g\u00f6zl\u0259nil\u0259n m\u0259nfi t\u0259sirl\u0259ri alt\u0131ndad\u0131r. Bel\u0259 ki, Tramp\u0131n t\u0259tbiq etdiyi 125 faizlik r\u00fcsumlar AB\u015e-a ild\u0259 600-700 milyard dollarl\u0131q mal ixrac ed\u0259n \u00c7in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn b\u00f6y\u00fck probleml\u0259r yarada bil\u0259r. Q\u0131sa m\u00fcdd\u0259td\u0259 bu q\u0259d\u0259r mal\u0131n dig\u0259r bazarlara y\u00f6n\u0259ldilm\u0259si qeyri-m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funa g\u00f6r\u0259 \u00c7ind\u0259 istehsal\u0131n z\u0259ifl\u0259m\u0259si, sonda is\u0259 \u00f6lk\u0259nin istehlak t\u0259l\u0259binin azalmas\u0131 qa\u00e7\u0131lmaz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr. \u018fn b\u00f6y\u00fck istehlak\u00e7\u0131 olan \u00c7ind\u0259 t\u0259l\u0259bin azalmas\u0131 is\u0259 d\u00fcnya xammal bazarlar\u0131nda qiym\u0259tl\u0259rin s\u00fcr\u0259tli eni\u015fin\u0259 g\u0259tir\u0259c\u0259k \u0259n ciddi amildir.<\/p>\n

Eyni s\u0259b\u0259bd\u0259n \u0130qtisadiyyat Nazirliyinin d\u0259 may-iyun aylar\u0131nda proqnozuna d\u0259yi\u015fiklik etm\u0259si g\u00f6zl\u0259nil\u0259ndir.<\/p>\n

\u0130qtisad\u00e7\u0131 Eld\u0259niz \u018fmirovun Musavat.com-a dediyin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, beyn\u0259lxalq qurumlar\u0131n m\u00fcxt\u0259lif \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rin iqtisadi art\u0131m g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259rin\u0259 dair proqnozlar\u0131 il \u0259rzind\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fdirilir: \u201cBu, bir \u0259n\u0259n\u0259dir. R\u00fcbl\u0259r \u00fczr\u0259 prosesl\u0259r analiz olunaraq proqnozlar yenil\u0259nir. Ona g\u00f6r\u0259 ki, proqnozlar ad\u0259t\u0259n \u0259vv\u0259lki d\u00f6vr\u00fcn g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259ri n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 al\u0131nmaqla haz\u0131rlan\u0131r. Bu zaman \u00e7oxsayl\u0131 faktorlar: \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259ki investisiya m\u00fchiti, x\u0259rcl\u0259m\u0259l\u0259r, siyas\u0259tl\u0259r modell\u0259\u015fdirilm\u0259kl\u0259 analiz edilir, alqoritml\u0259r vasit\u0259sil\u0259 n\u00f6vb\u0259ti d\u00f6vr \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn proqnozlar verilir. Bu bax\u0131mdan, aprel-iyun aylar\u0131 \u0259rzind\u0259 Donald Tramp\u0131n hans\u0131 q\u0259rarlar\u0131 alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bazarlar\u0131n ona hans\u0131 reaksiyalar\u0131 ver\u0259c\u0259yini tamamil\u0259 d\u00fczg\u00fcn hesablay\u0131b hans\u0131sa real proqnoz verm\u0259k \u00e7ox \u00e7\u0259tindir\u201d.<\/p>\n

Ekspert\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, proqnozla\u015fd\u0131rma aparan qurumlar\u0131n Az\u0259rbaycanla ba\u011fl\u0131 proqnozlar\u0131 d\u00f6vl\u0259t sifari\u015fl\u0259rinin h\u0259cmi, investisiya m\u00fchiti, neft sektoruna yat\u0131r\u0131lan investisiyalar, neft hasilat\u0131 h\u0259cml\u0259rind\u0259 sabitliyin saxlanmas\u0131 imkanlar\u0131, n\u0259hay\u0259t, r\u0259smi qurumlar\u0131n m\u0259lumatlar\u0131, yerli ekspertl\u0259rin fikirl\u0259ri n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 al\u0131nmaqla haz\u0131rlan\u0131r:<\/strong>\u00a0\u201c\u00dcmumiyy\u0259tl\u0259, \u00f6lk\u0259mizd\u0259 inflyasiya prosesl\u0259rin\u0259 \u0259n b\u00f6y\u00fck t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259r\u0259n iki m\u00fch\u00fcm faktoru x\u00fcsusi qeyd etm\u0259k olar. Bunlardan birincisi idxal, ikincisi is\u0259 r\u0259qab\u0259tdir. \u018flav\u0259 olaraq, \u00f6lk\u0259y\u0259 daxil olan neft g\u0259lirl\u0259rinin h\u0259cmi, onlar\u0131n m\u0259cmu t\u0259l\u0259b\u0259 t\u0259siri kimi amill\u0259r d\u0259 var. \u0130dxal inflyasiyas\u0131n\u0131n pay\u0131 h\u0259mi\u015f\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259kdir. Bu, yerli amill\u0259rin d\u0259 inflyasiyan\u0131n artmas\u0131na t\u0259sirini g\u00fccl\u0259ndirir\u201d.<\/p>\n

E.\u018fmirov hesab edir ki, h\u00f6kum\u0259tin inflyasiya proqnozlar\u0131n\u0131n haz\u0131rk\u0131 \u015f\u0259raitd\u0259 \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc do\u011frultma ehtimal\u0131 50 faizin alt\u0131ndad\u0131r:<\/strong>\u00a0\u201cXarici faktorlar\u0131n inflyasiyaya art\u0131m istiqam\u0259tind\u0259 t\u0259sirl\u0259ri \u00e7ox g\u00fccl\u0259nib\u201d.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ekspert: \u201cH\u00f6kum\u0259tin inflyasiya proqnozlar\u0131n\u0131n haz\u0131rk\u0131 \u015f\u0259raitd\u0259 \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc do\u011frultma ehtimal\u0131 50 faizin alt\u0131ndad\u0131r\u201d 2025-ci ilin mart ay\u0131nda Az\u0259rbaycanda illik inflyasiya 5,9 faiz\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259lib. \u201cYeni M\u00fcsavat\u201d D\u00f6vl\u0259t Statistika Komit\u0259sin\u0259 istinad\u0259n x\u0259b\u0259r verir ki, 2024-c\u00fc ilin mart ay\u0131na nisb\u0259t\u0259n qida m\u0259hsullar\u0131, i\u00e7kil\u0259r v\u0259 t\u00fct\u00fcn m\u0259mulatlar\u0131n\u0131n qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri 6,5 faiz, qeyri-qida m\u0259hsullar\u0131n\u0131n qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri 2,8 faiz, \u0259haliy\u0259 g\u00f6st\u0259rilmi\u015f \u00f6d\u0259ni\u015fli xidm\u0259tl\u0259rin d\u0259y\u0259ri is\u0259 7,5 faiz art\u0131b. 2025-ci ilin mart ay\u0131nda istehlak qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri indeksi \u0259vv\u0259lki aya nisb\u0259t\u0259n 0,6 faiz, yanvar-mart aylar\u0131nda is\u0259 \u0259vv\u0259lki ilin m\u00fcvafiq d\u00f6vr\u00fcn\u0259 nisb\u0259t\u0259n 5,6 faiz y\u00fcks\u0259lib. \u00d6t\u0259n ay qida m\u0259hsullar\u0131, i\u00e7kil\u0259r v\u0259 t\u00fct\u00fcn m\u0259mulatlar\u0131n\u0131n…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":799040,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"gutentor_comment":0,"rttpg_featured_image_url":{"full":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/2f82f59fcaabdf8fe0f05db9cf55b6e9.jpg",700,394,false],"landscape":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/2f82f59fcaabdf8fe0f05db9cf55b6e9.jpg",700,394,false],"portraits":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/2f82f59fcaabdf8fe0f05db9cf55b6e9.jpg",700,394,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/2f82f59fcaabdf8fe0f05db9cf55b6e9-500x280.jpg",500,280,true],"medium":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/2f82f59fcaabdf8fe0f05db9cf55b6e9-648x365.jpg",648,365,true],"large":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/2f82f59fcaabdf8fe0f05db9cf55b6e9.jpg",640,360,false],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/2f82f59fcaabdf8fe0f05db9cf55b6e9.jpg",700,394,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/2f82f59fcaabdf8fe0f05db9cf55b6e9.jpg",700,394,false],"post-thumbnail":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/2f82f59fcaabdf8fe0f05db9cf55b6e9-240x172.jpg",240,172,true],"advps-thumb-one":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/2f82f59fcaabdf8fe0f05db9cf55b6e9.jpg",700,394,false]},"rttpg_author":{"display_name":"V\u00fcsal Rafiqo\u011flu","author_link":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/?author=2"},"rttpg_comment":0,"rttpg_category":"G\u00fcnd\u0259m<\/a>","rttpg_excerpt":"Ekspert: \u201cH\u00f6kum\u0259tin inflyasiya proqnozlar\u0131n\u0131n haz\u0131rk\u0131 \u015f\u0259raitd\u0259 \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc do\u011frultma ehtimal\u0131 50 faizin alt\u0131ndad\u0131r\u201d 2025-ci ilin mart ay\u0131nda Az\u0259rbaycanda illik inflyasiya 5,9 faiz\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259lib. \u201cYeni M\u00fcsavat\u201d D\u00f6vl\u0259t Statistika Komit\u0259sin\u0259 istinad\u0259n x\u0259b\u0259r verir ki, 2024-c\u00fc ilin mart ay\u0131na nisb\u0259t\u0259n qida m\u0259hsullar\u0131, i\u00e7kil\u0259r v\u0259 t\u00fct\u00fcn m\u0259mulatlar\u0131n\u0131n qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri 6,5 faiz, qeyri-qida m\u0259hsullar\u0131n\u0131n qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri 2,8 faiz, \u0259haliy\u0259 g\u00f6st\u0259rilmi\u015f \u00f6d\u0259ni\u015fli xidm\u0259tl\u0259rin d\u0259y\u0259ri…","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/799039"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=799039"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/799039\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":799042,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/799039\/revisions\/799042"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/799040"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=799039"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=799039"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=799039"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}