{"id":802364,"date":"2025-04-24T20:14:46","date_gmt":"2025-04-24T16:14:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/?p=802364"},"modified":"2025-04-24T20:14:46","modified_gmt":"2025-04-24T16:14:46","slug":"manata-t%c9%99hluk%c9%99-x%c9%99b%c9%99rdarligi-neft-qiym%c9%99tl%c9%99rinin-k%c9%99skin-enisi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/?p=802364","title":{"rendered":"Manata t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259 X\u018fB\u018fRDARLI\u011eI – \u201cNeft qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin k\u0259skin eni\u015fi…\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

Beyn\u0259lxalq analitik m\u0259rk\u0259zl\u0259r AB\u015e-\u0131n yeni administrasiyas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flatd\u0131\u011f\u0131 tarif siyas\u0259tinin qlobal iqtisadiyyata, eyni zamanda m\u00fcxt\u0259lif regionlara t\u0259sirl\u0259rinin qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirilm\u0259sin\u0259 ba\u015flay\u0131blar. D\u00fcnya \u00fczr\u0259 apar\u0131lan qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259 C\u0259nubi Qafqaz v\u0259 M\u0259rk\u0259zi Asiya regionlar\u0131na da diqq\u0259t yetirilir. Bel\u0259 ki, aprelin 21-d\u0259 n\u00fcfuzlu beyn\u0259lxalq reytinq agentliyi Moody’s AB\u015e-\u0131n idxal tarifl\u0259rinin M\u0259rk\u0259zi Asiya v\u0259 C\u0259nubi Qafqaz iqtisadiyyatlar\u0131na t\u0259siri il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 r\u0259smi \u015f\u0259rhini d\u0259rc edib. \u015e\u0259rh\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, “AB\u015e-\u0131n tarifl\u0259ri M\u0259rk\u0259zi Asiya v\u0259 C\u0259nubi Qafqaz regionunun bank v\u0259 \u015firk\u0259tl\u0259ri \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn birba\u015fa deyil, dolay\u0131 riskl\u0259r yarad\u0131r”.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Qeyd edilib ki, tarifl\u0259rin region \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rin\u0259 birba\u015fa iqtisadi t\u0259siri m\u0259hdud olacaq. Bunun s\u0259b\u0259bi, tarifl\u0259rin orta s\u0259viyy\u0259li olmas\u0131 v\u0259 AB\u015e-\u0131n bu \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rin \u00fcmumi ixracat\u0131nda ki\u00e7ik paya sahib olmas\u0131d\u0131r. \u018fks\u0259r ixrac mallar\u0131 yeni tarifl\u0259rd\u0259n k\u0259narda qalacaq: “M\u0259s\u0259l\u0259n, Qazax\u0131stan\u0131n Ticar\u0259t Nazirliyin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, \u00f6lk\u0259nin AB\u015e-a ixrac etdiyi m\u0259hsullar\u0131n 90faizd\u0259n \u00e7oxunu xam neft, uran, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f v\u0259 dig\u0259r xammallar t\u0259\u015fkil edir ki, bunlar tarifl\u0259rd\u0259n azadd\u0131r”.<\/em><\/p>\n

Bununla bel\u0259, Moody\u2019s hesab edir ki, b\u00f6y\u00fck iqtisadiyyatlar aras\u0131nda ticar\u0259t m\u00fcharib\u0259sinin d\u0259rinl\u0259\u015fm\u0259si banklar v\u0259 \u015firk\u0259tl\u0259r \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn ticar\u0259t, z\u0259ifl\u0259y\u0259n inam v\u0259 makroiqtisadi v\u0259ziyy\u0259t, maliyy\u0259 bazarlar\u0131 olmaqla \u00fc\u00e7 \u0259sas risk kanal\u0131 vasit\u0259sil\u0259 daha geni\u015f iqtisadi \u00e7\u0259tinlikl\u0259r yarada bil\u0259r: “X\u00fcsusil\u0259 neft v\u0259 dig\u0259r xammal qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 olmas\u0131, potensial ticar\u0259t pozuntular\u0131, valyuta d\u0259yi\u015fk\u0259nliyi, azalan investisiya ax\u0131nlar\u0131, inflyasiya t\u0259zyiql\u0259ri, daha s\u0259rt kredit \u015f\u0259rtl\u0259ri v\u0259 sektoral t\u0259sirl\u0259r b\u0259zi \u015firk\u0259tl\u0259rin f\u0259aliyy\u0259tini z\u0259ifl\u0259d\u0259 bil\u0259r. Bu is\u0259 yerli banklar\u0131n kredit portfelinin art\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u0259ng\u0259ll\u0259y\u0259c\u0259k, aktiv keyfiyy\u0259tini z\u0259ifl\u0259d\u0259c\u0259k v\u0259 m\u0259nf\u0259\u0259tliliyi s\u0131x\u0131\u015fd\u0131racaq”.<\/p>\n

Reytinq agentliyi h\u0259m\u00e7inin \u0259lav\u0259 edib ki, qlobal ticar\u0259t ax\u0131nlar\u0131nda d\u0259yi\u015fiklik region \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn, o c\u00fcml\u0259d\u0259n Az\u0259rbaycan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn b\u0259zi imkanlar yarada bil\u0259r:<\/strong>\u00a0“AB\u015e bazar\u0131na y\u00f6n\u0259lmi\u015f m\u0259hsullar\u0131n, m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259n, avadanl\u0131q, metallurgiya m\u0259hsullar\u0131 v\u0259 tikinti materiallar\u0131n\u0131n yerli bazarlarda daha \u0259lveri\u015fli qiym\u0259tl\u0259rl\u0259 t\u0259qdim olunmas\u0131 ehtimal\u0131 var. H\u0259m\u00e7inin, AB\u015e-\u0131n tarif siyas\u0259ti n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 yaranacaq qlobal ticar\u0259t m\u00fcharib\u0259si \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259ri yeni ticar\u0259t t\u0259r\u0259fda\u015flar\u0131 axtarma\u011fa vadar ed\u0259 bil\u0259r ki, bu da t\u0259bii ehtiyatlarla z\u0259ngin olan M\u0259rk\u0259zi Asiya v\u0259 C\u0259nubi Qafqaz regionuna mara\u011f\u0131 art\u0131ra bil\u0259r. Region h\u0259m d\u0259 \u015fimal-c\u0259nub v\u0259 \u015f\u0259rq-q\u0259rb istiqam\u0259tind\u0259 n\u0259qliyyat v\u0259 logistika bax\u0131m\u0131ndan \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli potensiala malikdir. X\u00fcsusil\u0259 Qazax\u0131stan v\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycanda y\u00fck da\u015f\u0131ma v\u0259 d\u0259mir yolu sektorlar\u0131 Asiya v\u0259 Avropa aras\u0131nda tranzit \u0259m\u0259liyyatlar\u0131ndan faydalana bil\u0259r. Bu is\u0259 investisiyan\u0131n v\u0259 bank kreditl\u0259rin\u0259 t\u0259l\u0259bin artmas\u0131na s\u0259b\u0259b ola bil\u0259r. Lakin artan iqtisadi qeyri-m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259nlik fonunda riskl\u0259r y\u00fcks\u0259k olaraq qal\u0131r”.<\/p>\n

“Moody\u2019s” a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 neft qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin Az\u0259rbaycan v\u0259 Qazax\u0131standa neft-qaz sektorlar\u0131na, g\u0259lirl\u0259ri v\u0259 m\u0259nf\u0259\u0259tliliyi azaldaraq, yeni layih\u0259l\u0259r\u0259 v\u0259 k\u0259\u015ffiyyata investisiyan\u0131 z\u0259ifl\u0259d\u0259 bil\u0259c\u0259yini d\u0259 qeyd edib:<\/strong>\u00a0“Yerli banklar birba\u015fa d\u00f6vl\u0259t neft \u015firk\u0259tl\u0259ri il\u0259 \u0259laq\u0259li olmasalar da, neft sektorunun z\u0259ifl\u0259m\u0259si qeyri-neft iqtisadiyyat\u0131na t\u0259sir ed\u0259c\u0259k. Bu is\u0259 ki\u00e7ik v\u0259 orta sahibkarl\u0131q, p\u0259rak\u0259nd\u0259 ticar\u0259t sah\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259 artan bank ekspozisiyalar\u0131n\u0131 risk alt\u0131na alacaq”.<\/p>\n

S\u0259n\u0259dd\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycanla ba\u011fl\u0131 ayr\u0131ca qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259 d\u0259 var. M\u00fcsb\u0259t proqnozla Ba1 kredit reytinqin\u0259 malik Az\u0259rbaycan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn AB\u015e minimum 10 faiz tarif t\u0259yin edib. AB\u015e-a ixrac Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n \u00fcmumi ixrac\u0131n\u0131n c\u0259mi 0,6 faizini t\u0259\u015fkil edir. Bununla bel\u0259, Az\u0259rbaycanda \u0259man\u0259tl\u0259rin 41 faizi AB\u015e dollar\u0131ndad\u0131r ki, bu da qon\u015fu Erm\u0259nistan v\u0259 G\u00fcrc\u00fcstandan azd\u0131r. Moody’s qeyd edir ki, dollar as\u0131l\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcks\u0259k olan \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259r d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259n qlobal ticar\u0259t m\u00fchitind\u0259n \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli t\u0259zyiq\u0259 m\u0259ruz qala bil\u0259r.<\/p>\n

Aprel ay\u0131nda neftin qiym\u0259ti a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcb, Brent v\u0259 WTI qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri m\u00fcvafiq olaraq bir barel \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn 65 v\u0259 62 dollar civar\u0131ndad\u0131r. 2025-ci ild\u0259 qiym\u0259tl\u0259rin d\u0259yi\u015fk\u0259n qalaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6zl\u0259nilir. T\u0259l\u0259b olsa bel\u0259, x\u00fcsusil\u0259 OPEC+ hasilat\u0131 art\u0131rma\u011fa davam ed\u0259rs\u0259, t\u0259klif bazar ehtiyaclar\u0131n\u0131 \u00fcst\u0259l\u0259y\u0259 bil\u0259r.<\/p>\n

Moody’s qeyd edir ki, \u0259mt\u0259\u0259 qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259si v\u0259 qlobal t\u0259l\u0259bin azalmas\u0131 regionun milli valyutalar\u0131n\u0131 z\u0259ifl\u0259d\u0259c\u0259k. Tarix\u0259n onlar m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259ni z\u0259ifl\u0259d\u0259n v\u0259 b\u00f6y\u00fck xarici valyutada kredit portfelin\u0259 malik banklara t\u0259zyiqi art\u0131ran xarici \u015foklara h\u0259ssasd\u0131rlar. Valyutan\u0131n s\u00fcr\u0259tli ucuzla\u015fmas\u0131 ixrac\u0131 d\u0259st\u0259kl\u0259y\u0259 v\u0259 cari hesab k\u0259sirini azalda bil\u0259r, lakin y\u00fcks\u0259k bank dollarla\u015fmas\u0131 il\u0259 bu, h\u0259m d\u0259 daha \u00e7ox itkil\u0259r\u0259, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 m\u0259nf\u0259\u0259t\u0259 v\u0259 maliyy\u0259 m\u0259nb\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fk\u0259nliyin artmas\u0131na s\u0259b\u0259b olur. Valyuta riskl\u0259rind\u0259n s\u0131\u011fortalanmayan m\u00fc\u015ft\u0259ril\u0259r x\u00fcsusil\u0259 t\u0259sirl\u0259nir.<\/em><\/p>\n

Bundan \u0259lav\u0259, xarici borclara xidm\u0259t x\u0259rcl\u0259rinin artmas\u0131 korporativ sektora z\u0259r\u0259r ver\u0259 bil\u0259r.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Moody’s qeyd edir ki, son ill\u0259r Qazax\u0131stan, Az\u0259rbaycan v\u0259 \u00d6zb\u0259kistan iqtisadi dayan\u0131ql\u0131\u011f\u0131n g\u00fccl\u0259ndirilm\u0259si v\u0259 banklar\u0131n dollarla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n azald\u0131lmas\u0131 sah\u0259sind\u0259 m\u00fch\u00fcm ir\u0259lil\u0259yi\u015f \u0259ld\u0259 edibl\u0259r. B\u00f6lg\u0259d\u0259ki \u0259ks\u0259r \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259r d\u0259 orta iqtisadi \u015foklar\u0131 udmaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn buferl\u0259r yarad\u0131blar. Korporativ sektorda dayan\u0131ql\u0131l\u0131q g\u00fccl\u00fc maliyy\u0259 g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259ri, likvidlik v\u0259 x\u00fcsusil\u0259 iri v\u0259 d\u00f6vl\u0259t \u015firk\u0259tl\u0259ri \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn d\u00f6vl\u0259t d\u0259st\u0259yi il\u0259 t\u0259min edilir.<\/p>\n

Fitch Ratings Beyn\u0259lxalq Reytinq Agentliyin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, Avropa, Yax\u0131n \u015e\u0259rq v\u0259 Afrika regionunun inki\u015faf etm\u0259kd\u0259 olan bazarlar\u0131n\u0131n banklar\u0131 AB\u015e h\u00f6kum\u0259tinin tarif siyas\u0259tinin s\u0259rtl\u0259\u015fdirilm\u0259si v\u0259 bununla \u0259laq\u0259dar ticar\u0259t v\u0259 maliyy\u0259 sah\u0259sind\u0259 qeyri-m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259nlik s\u0259b\u0259bind\u0259n m\u00fcxt\u0259lif, lakin \u00fcmumiyy\u0259tl\u0259 m\u0259hdud t\u0259sirl\u0259 \u00fczl\u0259\u015firl\u0259r. Bildirilir ki, t\u0259sir s\u0259viyy\u0259si, ilk n\u00f6vb\u0259d\u0259, region \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rinin iqtisadiyyatlar\u0131n\u0131n AB\u015e-d\u0259 tarif siyas\u0259tinin s\u0259rtl\u0259\u015fdirilm\u0259sind\u0259n n\u0259 d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 z\u0259r\u0259r \u00e7\u0259k\u0259c\u0259yind\u0259n, o c\u00fcml\u0259d\u0259n bu \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259ki banklara t\u0259sirind\u0259n, h\u0259m\u00e7inin qlobal bazarlardak\u0131 volatillik s\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259n as\u0131l\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Agentliy\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, AB\u015e-a ixracdan qaynaqlanan birba\u015fa t\u0259sir \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tsiz olaraq qal\u0131r:<\/strong>\u00a0“Neft ixrac ed\u0259n \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259r neft qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259sind\u0259n z\u0259r\u0259r \u00e7\u0259k\u0259c\u0259kl\u0259r. Bu is\u0259 qlobal iqtisadi art\u0131m\u0131n yava\u015flamas\u0131 s\u0259b\u0259bind\u0259n tarifl\u0259rin t\u0259sirinin dolay\u0131 n\u0259tic\u0259sidir. Eyni zamanda AB\u015e-a m\u0259hdud ixrac h\u0259cmi olan neft idxal\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259r neftin ucuzla\u015fmas\u0131ndan qism\u0259n faydalana bil\u0259rl\u0259r\u201d.<\/p>\n

Hesabatda qeyd olunub ki, \u00dcDM art\u0131m tempinin yava\u015flamas\u0131 da daxil olmaqla \u0259lveri\u015fsiz iqtisadi n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259r, ad\u0259t\u0259n kreditl\u0259\u015fm\u0259 templ\u0259rinin azalmas\u0131 v\u0259 aktivl\u0259rin keyfiyy\u0259tinin m\u00fcmk\u00fcn pisl\u0259\u015fm\u0259si vasit\u0259sil\u0259 bank sektoruna m\u0259nfi t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259rir. Bundan \u0259lav\u0259, “riskin azald\u0131lmas\u0131” ssenarisi \u00e7\u0259r\u00e7iv\u0259sind\u0259 investorlar\u0131n inki\u015faf etm\u0259kd\u0259 olan \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259r\u0259 m\u00fcnasib\u0259td\u0259 m\u00f6vqeyi d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259rs\u0259\u00a0yenid\u0259n maliyy\u0259l\u0259\u015fdirm\u0259 riskl\u0259ri v\u0259 borclanma x\u0259rcl\u0259ri d\u0259 arta bil\u0259r.<\/p>\n

Agentliyin analitikl\u0259ri hesab edirl\u0259r ki, \u201cMDB+\u201d regionunda tarifl\u0259rin birba\u015fa t\u0259siri minimald\u0131r, \u00e7\u00fcnki AB\u015e-a ixrac h\u0259cml\u0259ri m\u0259hduddur:<\/strong>\u00a0“Erm\u0259nistan v\u0259 G\u00fcrc\u00fcstan neft idxal\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131d\u0131r, Az\u0259rbaycan v\u0259 Qazax\u0131stan kimi ixracat\u00e7\u0131 \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rin banklar\u0131n\u0131n is\u0259 \u00fcmumiyy\u0259tl\u0259 neft-qaz sektorundan as\u0131l\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131d\u0131r v\u0259 onlar \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli likvidlik buferl\u0259rin\u0259 malikdirl\u0259r”.<\/p>\n

\u201cFitch\u201din m\u0259lumat\u0131na g\u00f6r\u0259, y\u00fcks\u0259k xarici \u00f6hd\u0259likl\u0259ri olan \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259, x\u00fcsusil\u0259 \u00d6zb\u0259kistanda d\u00f6vl\u0259t banklar\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn yenid\u0259n maliyy\u0259l\u0259\u015fdirm\u0259 d\u0259y\u0259ri arta bil\u0259r. Lakin bu riskl\u0259r d\u00f6vl\u0259t d\u0259st\u0259yi v\u0259 \u0259sas\u0259n beyn\u0259lxalq maliyy\u0259 institutlar\u0131 t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n g\u00fcz\u0259\u015ftli \u015f\u0259rtl\u0259rl\u0259 t\u0259qdim edil\u0259n xarici borclar\u0131n uzunm\u00fcdd\u0259tli xarakteri il\u0259 kompensasiya olunur.<\/p>\n

Reytinq agentliyi qeyd edir ki, tarifl\u0259rin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131ndan sonra AB\u015e dollar\u0131 bir q\u0259d\u0259r z\u0259ifl\u0259yib, lakin bu tendensiya d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259rs\u0259, yerli valyutalar\u0131n m\u00fcmk\u00fcn devalvasiyas\u0131 bank sisteminin dollarla\u015fma s\u0259viyy\u0259si y\u00fcks\u0259k olan \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259 aktivl\u0259rin keyfiyy\u0259tini pisl\u0259\u015fdir\u0259 bil\u0259r: “Bununla bel\u0259, \u0259ks\u0259r banklar orta s\u0259viyy\u0259li itkil\u0259rin \u00f6hd\u0259sind\u0259n g\u0259l\u0259 bil\u0259rl\u0259r, region \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rinin h\u00f6kum\u0259tl\u0259ri is\u0259 laz\u0131m g\u0259l\u0259rs\u0259, milli valyutalar\u0131 d\u0259st\u0259kl\u0259y\u0259 bil\u0259rl\u0259r”.<\/p>\n

\"Manat\u0131n<\/p>\n

R\u0259\u015fad H\u0259s\u0259nov<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0130qtisad\u00e7\u0131-ekspert R\u0259\u015fad H\u0259s\u0259novun Musavat.com-a dediyin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, agentlikl\u0259rin qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259l\u0259rin\u0259 t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259r\u0259n \u0259sas faktor C\u0259nubi Qafqaz v\u0259 M\u0259rk\u0259zi Asiyadan AB\u015e-a ixrac\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 s\u0259viyy\u0259sidir:<\/strong>\u00a0\u201cBu, h\u0259qiq\u0259t\u0259n d\u0259 tarifl\u0259rin h\u0259min b\u00f6lg\u0259l\u0259r\u0259 birba\u015fa t\u0259sirl\u0259ri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 edir. Lakin bu, h\u0259m d\u0259 qeyd olunan b\u00f6lg\u0259l\u0259rin tarif siyas\u0259tin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259 \u0259sas istiqam\u0259tl\u0259rd\u0259n idxal\u0131n azalmas\u0131 n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 bo\u015falan \u00e7ox \u0259lveri\u015fli AB\u015e bazar\u0131ndan faydalanma imkanlar\u0131n\u0131 azaldan faktordur. Reall\u0131qda h\u0259r iki region \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn tarifl\u0259rin dolay\u0131 t\u0259sirl\u0259ri daha b\u00f6y\u00fck olacaq. Bu, ilk n\u00f6vb\u0259d\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycan aspektind\u0259n, neft hasilat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olan dig\u0259r \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259r aspektind\u0259n ziddiyy\u0259tli n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259r yaradacaq. Tarifl\u0259rin \u0259sas \u0259mt\u0259\u0259 bazarlar\u0131nda qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6zl\u0259nilir – \u0259ks\u0259r analitik m\u0259rk\u0259zl\u0259rin, iqtisad\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n r\u0259yi bu y\u00f6nd\u0259dir. Bel\u0259 bahala\u015fma idxaldan as\u0131l\u0131 olan \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259r, o c\u00fcml\u0259d\u0259n d\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn inflyasiya t\u0259zyiqini art\u0131rmaqla yana\u015f\u0131, \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259n xarici valyuta ax\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fccl\u0259nm\u0259sin\u0259 s\u0259b\u0259b olacaq. Amma dig\u0259r maraql\u0131 m\u0259qam bundan ibar\u0259tdir ki, bu bahala\u015fma fonunda Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n \u0259sas ixrac m\u0259hsulu olan neftin qiym\u0259tinin ucuzla\u015fmas\u0131 g\u00f6zl\u0259nilir v\u0259 art\u0131q ba\u015f verir d\u0259. Bu da ona g\u00f6r\u0259dir ki, y\u00fcks\u0259k tarifl\u0259r v\u0259 \u0259mt\u0259\u0259l\u0259rin bahala\u015fmas\u0131 \u015f\u0259raitind\u0259 al\u0131c\u0131l\u0131q qabiliyy\u0259ti a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u0259c\u0259k, istehlak azalacaq, bu is\u0259 son n\u0259tic\u0259d\u0259 enerjida\u015f\u0131y\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131na t\u0259l\u0259bat\u0131 v\u0259 m\u00fcvafiq olaraq da onlar\u0131n qiym\u0259tini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 salacaq. Bir s\u0131ra iri neft hasilat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n azalan g\u0259lirl\u0259ri hasilat\u0131 v\u0259 ixrac\u0131 art\u0131rmaqla kompensasiya etm\u0259y\u0259 \u00e7al\u0131\u015faraq bazara daha \u00e7ox neft \u00e7\u0131xarmas\u0131 da qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7\u0259k\u0259n \u0259sas faktorlardan olacaq. Burada AB\u015e administrasiyas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259 neft istehsal\u0131n\u0131 v\u0259 ixrac\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmaq siyas\u0259ti, h\u0259m\u00e7inin Avropa \u0130ttifaq\u0131n\u0131n ucuz neft qiym\u0259tl\u0259rind\u0259 maraql\u0131 olmas\u0131 da m\u00fch\u00fcm paya malikdir\u201d.<\/p>\n

Ekspert bildirir ki, neftin ucuzla\u015fmas\u0131 \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259 profisitli t\u0259diy\u0259 balans\u0131n\u0131 aradan qald\u0131rmaqla makroiqtisadi sabitlik \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u00e7a\u011f\u0131r\u0131\u015flar formala\u015fd\u0131r\u0131r:<\/strong>\u00a0\u201cAz\u0259rbaycan neftin\u00a0 k\u0259skin ucuzla\u015fmas\u0131na 2015-ci ild\u0259ki il\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 daha f\u0259rqli v\u0259ziyy\u0259td\u0259dir. Do\u011frudur, insanlar\u0131n g\u0259lirl\u0259ri v\u0259 ehtiyatlar\u0131 bax\u0131m\u0131ndan daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 v\u0259ziyy\u0259td\u0259yik. Lakin \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259 b\u00fct\u00fcn qruplar\u0131n valyutaya t\u0259l\u0259bi \u0259vv\u0259lki kimi k\u0259skin art\u0131racaq imkanlar\u0131 yoxdur. Bu is\u0259 q\u0259fil s\u0131\u00e7ray\u0131\u015flar\u0131n olmas\u0131 ehtimal\u0131n\u0131 azald\u0131r. Dig\u0259r sah\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259, x\u00fcsusil\u0259 idxaldan as\u0131l\u0131l\u0131q, yerli istehsal\u0131n inki\u015faf\u0131, ixrac\u0131n art\u0131m\u0131 kimi sah\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259 ciddi bir d\u0259yi\u015fiklik yoxdur. Buna g\u00f6r\u0259 d\u0259 neft qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin k\u0259skin eni\u015fi \u00f6lk\u0259 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn ciddi probleml\u0259r formala\u015fd\u0131ra bil\u0259c\u0259k amil olaraq qal\u0131r\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Beyn\u0259lxalq analitik m\u0259rk\u0259zl\u0259r AB\u015e-\u0131n yeni administrasiyas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flatd\u0131\u011f\u0131 tarif siyas\u0259tinin qlobal iqtisadiyyata, eyni zamanda m\u00fcxt\u0259lif regionlara t\u0259sirl\u0259rinin qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirilm\u0259sin\u0259 ba\u015flay\u0131blar. D\u00fcnya \u00fczr\u0259 apar\u0131lan qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259 C\u0259nubi Qafqaz v\u0259 M\u0259rk\u0259zi Asiya regionlar\u0131na da diqq\u0259t yetirilir. Bel\u0259 ki, aprelin 21-d\u0259 n\u00fcfuzlu beyn\u0259lxalq reytinq agentliyi Moody’s AB\u015e-\u0131n idxal tarifl\u0259rinin M\u0259rk\u0259zi Asiya v\u0259 C\u0259nubi Qafqaz iqtisadiyyatlar\u0131na t\u0259siri il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 r\u0259smi \u015f\u0259rhini d\u0259rc edib. \u015e\u0259rh\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, “AB\u015e-\u0131n tarifl\u0259ri M\u0259rk\u0259zi Asiya v\u0259 C\u0259nubi Qafqaz regionunun bank v\u0259 \u015firk\u0259tl\u0259ri \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn birba\u015fa deyil, dolay\u0131 riskl\u0259r yarad\u0131r”. Qeyd edilib ki, tarifl\u0259rin region \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rin\u0259 birba\u015fa iqtisadi t\u0259siri m\u0259hdud olacaq. Bunun s\u0259b\u0259bi, tarifl\u0259rin orta…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":802365,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"gutentor_comment":0,"rttpg_featured_image_url":{"full":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/d04eee97900732eac6def4ed412a03fc.jpg",800,500,false],"landscape":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/d04eee97900732eac6def4ed412a03fc.jpg",800,500,false],"portraits":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/d04eee97900732eac6def4ed412a03fc.jpg",800,500,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/d04eee97900732eac6def4ed412a03fc-500x280.jpg",500,280,true],"medium":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/d04eee97900732eac6def4ed412a03fc-584x365.jpg",584,365,true],"large":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/d04eee97900732eac6def4ed412a03fc.jpg",640,400,false],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/d04eee97900732eac6def4ed412a03fc.jpg",800,500,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/d04eee97900732eac6def4ed412a03fc.jpg",800,500,false],"post-thumbnail":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/d04eee97900732eac6def4ed412a03fc-240x172.jpg",240,172,true],"advps-thumb-one":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/d04eee97900732eac6def4ed412a03fc.jpg",800,500,false]},"rttpg_author":{"display_name":"V\u00fcsal Rafiqo\u011flu","author_link":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/?author=2"},"rttpg_comment":0,"rttpg_category":"G\u00fcnd\u0259m<\/a>","rttpg_excerpt":"Beyn\u0259lxalq analitik m\u0259rk\u0259zl\u0259r AB\u015e-\u0131n yeni administrasiyas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flatd\u0131\u011f\u0131 tarif siyas\u0259tinin qlobal iqtisadiyyata, eyni zamanda m\u00fcxt\u0259lif regionlara t\u0259sirl\u0259rinin qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirilm\u0259sin\u0259 ba\u015flay\u0131blar. D\u00fcnya \u00fczr\u0259 apar\u0131lan qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259 C\u0259nubi Qafqaz v\u0259 M\u0259rk\u0259zi Asiya regionlar\u0131na da diqq\u0259t yetirilir. Bel\u0259 ki, aprelin 21-d\u0259 n\u00fcfuzlu beyn\u0259lxalq reytinq agentliyi Moody’s AB\u015e-\u0131n idxal tarifl\u0259rinin M\u0259rk\u0259zi Asiya v\u0259 C\u0259nubi Qafqaz iqtisadiyyatlar\u0131na t\u0259siri il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 r\u0259smi \u015f\u0259rhini d\u0259rc…","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/802364"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=802364"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/802364\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":802366,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/802364\/revisions\/802366"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/802365"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=802364"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=802364"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=802364"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}