{"id":811256,"date":"2025-06-16T15:36:44","date_gmt":"2025-06-16T11:36:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/?p=811256"},"modified":"2025-06-16T15:36:44","modified_gmt":"2025-06-16T11:36:44","slug":"israil-iran-muharib%c9%99sinin-mumkun-ssenaril%c9%99ri-yaxin-s%c9%99rq-partlayir-az%c9%99rbaycan-bu-oyunda-n%c9%99-etm%c9%99lidir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/?p=811256","title":{"rendered":"\u0130srail-\u0130ran m\u00fcharib\u0259sinin m\u00fcmk\u00fcn ssenaril\u0259ri: Yax\u0131n \u015e\u0259rq partlay\u0131r, Az\u0259rbaycan bu oyunda n\u0259 etm\u0259lidir?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Yax\u0131n \u015e\u0259rqd\u0259 tarazl\u0131q n\u00f6qt\u0259si bird\u0259f\u0259lik pozulmaq \u00fczr\u0259dir. \u0130srail v\u0259 \u0130ran aras\u0131nda bir ne\u00e7\u0259 c\u0259bh\u0259d\u0259 ba\u015flayan silahl\u0131 toqqu\u015fmalar art\u0131q 4 g\u00fcnd\u00fcr ki, fasil\u0259siz \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 davam edir. Bu d\u0259f\u0259 v\u0259ziyy\u0259t \u0259vv\u0259lki lokal at\u0131\u015fmalardan f\u0259rqli olaraq tammiqyasl\u0131 m\u00fcharib\u0259y\u0259 \u00e7evrilm\u0259k riski da\u015f\u0131y\u0131r. Q\u0259zza, Livan v\u0259 Suriya il\u0259 paralel olaraq \u0130ran \u0259razisind\u0259n \u0130srail\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131 h\u0259yata ke\u00e7iril\u0259n h\u00fccumlara cavab olaraq T\u0259l-\u018fviv rejimi Tehran\u0131 birba\u015fa h\u0259d\u0259f al\u0131r.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0130ran t\u0259r\u0259fi a\u00e7\u0131q \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 \u201cm\u00fcharib\u0259nin yeni m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259sin\u0259 ke\u00e7ildiyini\u201d b\u0259yan edir. Bu is\u0259 b\u00f6lg\u0259d\u0259 yaln\u0131z regional deyil, qlobal n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259r do\u011furacaq prosesl\u0259rin ba\u015fland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6st\u0259rir. Beyn\u0259lxalq analitik m\u0259rk\u0259zl\u0259r, t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik institutlar\u0131 v\u0259 k\u0259\u015ffiyyat qurumlar\u0131 art\u0131q yeni m\u00fcharib\u0259nin m\u00fcmk\u00fcn ssenaril\u0259rini masaya qoyublar.<\/p>\n

\"\u0130SRA<\/p>\n

3 \u0259sas ssenari: d\u00fcnya analitikl\u0259ri n\u0259 deyir?<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Ssenari 1: Kontrollu g\u0259rginlik v\u0259 m\u0259hdud hava z\u0259rb\u0259l\u0259ri<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bu ssenariy\u0259 \u0259sas\u0259n, t\u0259r\u0259fl\u0259r \u2013 x\u00fcsusil\u0259 AB\u015e v\u0259 Avropa \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rinin ciddi t\u0259zyiql\u0259ri il\u0259 \u2013 m\u00fcnaqi\u015f\u0259ni geni\u015fmiqyasl\u0131 m\u00fcharib\u0259y\u0259 \u00e7evirm\u0259d\u0259n, daha \u00e7ox simvolik v\u0259 x\u0259b\u0259rdaredici z\u0259rb\u0259l\u0259rl\u0259 kifay\u0259tl\u0259n\u0259c\u0259kl\u0259r.<\/strong>\u00a0Burada \u0259sas m\u0259qs\u0259d qar\u015f\u0131 t\u0259r\u0259f\u0259 g\u00fcc n\u00fcmayi\u015f etdirm\u0259k, lakin tam m\u00fcharib\u0259d\u0259n qa\u00e7maqd\u0131r. Diplomatik vasit\u0259\u00e7ilik, BMT s\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259 \u00e7a\u011f\u0131r\u0131\u015flar v\u0259 m\u00fcv\u0259qq\u0259ti sakitlik bu ssenarinin t\u0259rkib hiss\u0259sidir.<\/p>\n

Ssenari 2: Regionda tammiqyasl\u0131 m\u00fcharib\u0259<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u018fg\u0259r t\u0259r\u0259fl\u0259r bu m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259ni ke\u00e7\u0259rs\u0259, m\u00fcnaqi\u015f\u0259 \u0130ran\u0131n Livan, Suriya v\u0259 \u0130raqdak\u0131 \u015fi\u0259 m\u00fctt\u0259fiql\u0259rinin \u2013 Hizbullah, H\u018fMAS v\u0259 H\u0259\u015fd \u015eabi \u2013 vasit\u0259sil\u0259 d\u0259rinl\u0259\u015f\u0259c\u0259k.<\/strong>\u00a0\u0130srail is\u0259 cavab olaraq birba\u015fa \u0130ran \u0259razisin\u0259 \u2013 o c\u00fcml\u0259d\u0259n Fordo, Natanz kimi n\u00fcv\u0259 obyektl\u0259rin\u0259 \u2013 geni\u015fmiqyasl\u0131 z\u0259rb\u0259l\u0259r endir\u0259 bil\u0259r. Bu halda Yax\u0131n \u015e\u0259rq 1973-c\u00fc ild\u0259n sonra ilk d\u0259f\u0259 bu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcd\u0259 geni\u015fmiqyasl\u0131 m\u00fcharib\u0259 il\u0259 \u00fczl\u0259\u015f\u0259 bil\u0259r.<\/p>\n

Ssenari 3: AB\u015e r\u0259hb\u0259rliyind\u0259 anti-\u0130ran koalisiyas\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0130ran \u0130srailin daxilin\u0259 ciddi strateji z\u0259rb\u0259l\u0259r endir\u0259rs\u0259 v\u0259 eyni zamanda n\u00fcv\u0259 silah\u0131 istehsal\u0131na a\u00e7\u0131q \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 y\u00f6n\u0259lmi\u015f add\u0131mlar atarsa, bu, Tramp administrasiyas\u0131 t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n \u201cq\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 x\u0259tt\u201d kimi q\u0259bul edil\u0259c\u0259k.<\/strong>\u00a0N\u0259tic\u0259d\u0259 AB\u015e B\u00f6y\u00fck Britaniya v\u0259 \u0259r\u0259b m\u00fctt\u0259fiql\u0259ri il\u0259 birlikd\u0259 \u0130ran\u0131n h\u0259rbi v\u0259 n\u00fcv\u0259 infrastrukturuna qar\u015f\u0131 hava kampaniyas\u0131na ba\u015flaya bil\u0259r. Bu is\u0259 art\u0131q lokal deyil, qlobal m\u00fcharib\u0259 t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sidir.<\/p>\n

\"RESM\u0130<\/p>\n

Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n m\u00f6vqeyi: balansl\u0131 neytrall\u0131q, lakin kritik m\u00f6vqe<\/strong><\/em><\/h3>\n

Az\u0259rbaycan bu t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259li siyasi-h\u0259rbi konfiqurasiyada olduqca h\u0259ssas n\u00f6qt\u0259d\u0259 dayan\u0131r.\u00a0<\/strong>Bir t\u0259r\u0259fd\u0259 \u0130sraill\u0259 m\u00f6hk\u0259ml\u0259nmi\u015f strateji m\u00fcnasib\u0259tl\u0259r \u2013 t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik, k\u0259\u015ffiyyat v\u0259 enerji sah\u0259sind\u0259 \u0259m\u0259kda\u015fl\u0131q; dig\u0259r t\u0259r\u0259fd\u0259 is\u0259 \u0130ranla 765 kilometrlik s\u0259rh\u0259d, tarixi v\u0259 dini ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131qlar.<\/p>\n

Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc bu qar\u015f\u0131durmadan k\u0259narda saxlamaq ist\u0259yi t\u0259biidir, lakin prosesl\u0259rin h\u0259rbi, diplomatik v\u0259 informasiya m\u00fcst\u0259visind\u0259 d\u0259rinl\u0259\u015fm\u0259si fonunda Bak\u0131 d\u0259qiq m\u00f6vqe v\u0259 s\u0259m\u0259r\u0259li diplomatik strategiya formala\u015fd\u0131rmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Riskl\u0259r:<\/strong><\/h3>\n

– \u0130ran\u0131n s\u0259rh\u0259dd\u0259 h\u0259rbi t\u0259liml\u0259ri v\u0259 Nax\u00e7\u0131vana t\u0259hdid ritorikas\u0131.<\/p>\n

– \u0130ran\u0131n Erm\u0259nistana silah g\u00f6nd\u0259rm\u0259si v\u0259 onu regional ittifaqa c\u0259lb etm\u0259k ist\u0259yi.<\/p>\n

– C\u0259nub s\u0259rh\u0259dind\u0259 potensial qa\u00e7q\u0131n ax\u0131n\u0131 v\u0259 iqtisadi ticar\u0259t yollar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u011flanmas\u0131 ehtimal\u0131.<\/p>\n

\"QACQ\u0130N.jpg<\/p>\n

\u0130mkanlar:<\/strong><\/h3>\n

– \u0130srailin v\u0259 Q\u0259rbin Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131 regional logistik m\u0259rk\u0259z kimi d\u0259st\u0259kl\u0259m\u0259si.<\/p>\n

– \u0130ran\u0131n z\u0259ifl\u0259m\u0259si fonunda Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n regional g\u00fcc balans\u0131nda \u00e7\u0259kisinin artmas\u0131.<\/p>\n

– Orta D\u0259hliz v\u0259 Z\u0259ng\u0259zur layih\u0259l\u0259rinin aktuall\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n daha da y\u00fcks\u0259lm\u0259si.<\/p>\n

Bak\u0131-T\u0259briz x\u0259ttin\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131 informasiya sava\u015f\u0131<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Son g\u00fcnl\u0259rd\u0259 SEPAH-a yax\u0131n \u0130ran medias\u0131nda Az\u0259rbaycana qar\u015f\u0131 s\u0259rt ittihamlar s\u0259sl\u0259ndirilir.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Guya Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n \u0130srail\u0259 neft satmas\u0131 n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 \u201csionist rejim\u201d T\u0259brizi bombalay\u0131r. Bu absurd iddialar\u0131n arxas\u0131nda t\u0259kc\u0259 informasiya m\u00fcharib\u0259si deyil, h\u0259m d\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycanla C\u0259nubi Az\u0259rbaycan aras\u0131nda psixoloji u\u00e7urum yaratmaq c\u0259hdi dayan\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"TABR\u0130Z.jpg<\/p>\n

Bu, h\u0259m d\u0259 Tehran rejiminin i\u00e7\u0259rid\u0259 n\u0259zar\u0259ti itirdikc\u0259 g\u00fcnahkar axtar\u0131\u015f\u0131 v\u0259 c\u0259nublu soyda\u015flar\u0131n diqq\u0259tini ba\u015fqa t\u0259r\u0259f\u0259 y\u00f6n\u0259ltm\u0259k c\u0259hdidir.\u00a0Halbuki Az\u0259rbaycan d\u00f6vl\u0259ti \u0130ran \u0259razisind\u0259 ba\u015f ver\u0259n he\u00e7 bir hadis\u0259nin i\u015ftirak\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 deyil v\u0259 enerji ticar\u0259ti beyn\u0259lxalq bazar qaydalar\u0131na uy\u011fun apar\u0131l\u0131r.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"H\u0130KMERT.jpg<\/strong><\/p>\n

Prezidentin k\u00f6m\u0259k\u00e7isi Hikm\u0259t Hac\u0131yevin bu haqda dediyi fikirl\u0259r son d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259 ayd\u0131nd\u0131r:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cNeft g\u0259mi il\u0259 a\u00e7\u0131q d\u0259niz\u0259 \u00e7\u0131xd\u0131qdan sonra onun hara ged\u0259c\u0259yin\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycan n\u0259zar\u0259t etmir v\u0259 ed\u0259 d\u0259 bilm\u0259z. Bu, bazar iqtisadiyyat\u0131n\u0131n qaydalar\u0131d\u0131r\u201d.<\/p>\n

N\u018fT\u0130C\u018f: Az\u0259rbaycan yaln\u0131z m\u00fc\u015fahid\u0259\u00e7i deyil \u2013 bu oyunda oyun\u00e7u v\u0259 h\u0259d\u0259f ola bil\u0259r<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n

\u0130srail-\u0130ran qar\u015f\u0131durmas\u0131 lokal g\u0259rginlik deyil<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 bu, qlobal g\u00fccl\u0259rin v\u0259 regional aktorlar\u0131n yeni d\u00fcz\u0259n u\u011frunda sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n bir hiss\u0259sidir. Bu m\u0259nz\u0259r\u0259d\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycan diqq\u0259tli, lakin passiv olmayan diplomatik m\u00f6vqe tutmal\u0131d\u0131r. D\u00f6vl\u0259tin strateji maraqlar\u0131 yaln\u0131z neytrall\u0131qla deyil, h\u0259m d\u0259 milli t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik v\u0259 beyn\u0259lxalq t\u0259r\u0259fda\u015fl\u0131qlar\u0131n d\u00fczg\u00fcn balansla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 il\u0259 qoruna bil\u0259r.<\/p>\n

\"\u0130RAN\u0130<\/p>\n

M\u00fcnaqi\u015f\u0259 d\u0259rinl\u0259\u015f\u0259rs\u0259, Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n da oyunun qaydalar\u0131n\u0131 yenid\u0259n m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259nl\u0259\u015fdirm\u0259si qa\u00e7\u0131lmaz olacaq.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yax\u0131n \u015e\u0259rqd\u0259 tarazl\u0131q n\u00f6qt\u0259si bird\u0259f\u0259lik pozulmaq \u00fczr\u0259dir. \u0130srail v\u0259 \u0130ran aras\u0131nda bir ne\u00e7\u0259 c\u0259bh\u0259d\u0259 ba\u015flayan silahl\u0131 toqqu\u015fmalar art\u0131q 4 g\u00fcnd\u00fcr ki, fasil\u0259siz \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 davam edir. Bu d\u0259f\u0259 v\u0259ziyy\u0259t \u0259vv\u0259lki lokal at\u0131\u015fmalardan f\u0259rqli olaraq tammiqyasl\u0131 m\u00fcharib\u0259y\u0259 \u00e7evrilm\u0259k riski da\u015f\u0131y\u0131r. Q\u0259zza, Livan v\u0259 Suriya il\u0259 paralel olaraq \u0130ran \u0259razisind\u0259n \u0130srail\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131 h\u0259yata ke\u00e7iril\u0259n h\u00fccumlara cavab olaraq T\u0259l-\u018fviv rejimi Tehran\u0131 birba\u015fa h\u0259d\u0259f al\u0131r. \u0130ran t\u0259r\u0259fi a\u00e7\u0131q \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 \u201cm\u00fcharib\u0259nin yeni m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259sin\u0259 ke\u00e7ildiyini\u201d b\u0259yan edir. Bu is\u0259 b\u00f6lg\u0259d\u0259 yaln\u0131z regional deyil, qlobal n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259r do\u011furacaq prosesl\u0259rin ba\u015fland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6st\u0259rir. Beyn\u0259lxalq analitik m\u0259rk\u0259zl\u0259r, t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik institutlar\u0131 v\u0259 k\u0259\u015ffiyyat qurumlar\u0131…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":811257,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"gutentor_comment":0,"rttpg_featured_image_url":{"full":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/6cbe05d68a7f2cf783ff1710ad84f44d.jpg",870,500,false],"landscape":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/6cbe05d68a7f2cf783ff1710ad84f44d.jpg",870,500,false],"portraits":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/6cbe05d68a7f2cf783ff1710ad84f44d.jpg",870,500,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/6cbe05d68a7f2cf783ff1710ad84f44d-500x280.jpg",500,280,true],"medium":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/6cbe05d68a7f2cf783ff1710ad84f44d-635x365.jpg",635,365,true],"large":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/6cbe05d68a7f2cf783ff1710ad84f44d-840x483.jpg",640,368,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/6cbe05d68a7f2cf783ff1710ad84f44d.jpg",870,500,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/6cbe05d68a7f2cf783ff1710ad84f44d.jpg",870,500,false],"post-thumbnail":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/6cbe05d68a7f2cf783ff1710ad84f44d-240x172.jpg",240,172,true],"advps-thumb-one":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/6cbe05d68a7f2cf783ff1710ad84f44d.jpg",870,500,false]},"rttpg_author":{"display_name":"V\u00fcsal Rafiqo\u011flu","author_link":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/?author=2"},"rttpg_comment":0,"rttpg_category":"G\u00fcnd\u0259m<\/a>","rttpg_excerpt":"Yax\u0131n \u015e\u0259rqd\u0259 tarazl\u0131q n\u00f6qt\u0259si bird\u0259f\u0259lik pozulmaq \u00fczr\u0259dir. \u0130srail v\u0259 \u0130ran aras\u0131nda bir ne\u00e7\u0259 c\u0259bh\u0259d\u0259 ba\u015flayan silahl\u0131 toqqu\u015fmalar art\u0131q 4 g\u00fcnd\u00fcr ki, fasil\u0259siz \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 davam edir. Bu d\u0259f\u0259 v\u0259ziyy\u0259t \u0259vv\u0259lki lokal at\u0131\u015fmalardan f\u0259rqli olaraq tammiqyasl\u0131 m\u00fcharib\u0259y\u0259 \u00e7evrilm\u0259k riski da\u015f\u0131y\u0131r. Q\u0259zza, Livan v\u0259 Suriya il\u0259 paralel olaraq \u0130ran \u0259razisind\u0259n \u0130srail\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131 h\u0259yata ke\u00e7iril\u0259n h\u00fccumlara cavab olaraq T\u0259l-\u018fviv…","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/811256"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=811256"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/811256\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":811258,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/811256\/revisions\/811258"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/811257"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=811256"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=811256"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=811256"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}