{"id":832587,"date":"2025-11-01T12:05:50","date_gmt":"2025-11-01T08:05:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/?p=832587"},"modified":"2025-11-01T12:05:50","modified_gmt":"2025-11-01T08:05:50","slug":"realliq-proqnozlari-ust%c9%99l%c9%99di-10-ayin-iqtisadi-gost%c9%99ricil%c9%99ri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/?p=832587","title":{"rendered":"Reall\u0131q proqnozlar\u0131 \u00fcst\u0259l\u0259di: 10 ay\u0131n iqtisadi g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259ri"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"text-content\" data-id=\"\" data-url=\"\">\n<h3><strong>M\u00fct\u0259x\u0259ssis\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, h\u00f6kum\u0259t neftin qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin \u0259n az h\u0259ddi ssenarisin\u0259 indid\u0259n haz\u0131r olmal\u0131d\u0131r<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>\u00d6t\u0259n ilin \u0259vv\u0259lind\u0259n bir s\u0131ra beyn\u0259lxalq maliyy\u0259 qurumlar\u0131 v\u0259 iqtisadi analitik m\u0259rk\u0259zl\u0259r Az\u0259rbaycan iqtisadiyyat\u0131 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 ehtiyatl\u0131, b\u0259z\u0259n is\u0259 b\u0259dbin proqnozlar ir\u0259li s\u00fcr\u00fcrd\u00fcl\u0259r. Beyn\u0259lxalq Valyuta Fondu (BVF), D\u00fcnya Bank\u0131, Fitch Ratings v\u0259 bir s\u0131ra regional ara\u015fd\u0131rma institutlar\u0131 neft qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin k\u0259skin ucuzla\u015faraq 40 dollar s\u0259viyy\u0259sin\u0259 en\u0259c\u0259yi, bunun n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 d\u00f6vl\u0259t b\u00fcdc\u0259sind\u0259 g\u0259rginlik, inflyasiyan\u0131n y\u00fcks\u0259li\u015fi v\u0259 h\u0259tta milli valyutan\u0131n devalvasiyas\u0131 riskl\u0259rinin arta bil\u0259c\u0259yi bar\u0259d\u0259 x\u0259b\u0259rdarl\u0131qlar etmi\u015fdil\u0259r. H\u0259min d\u00f6vrd\u0259 b\u0259zi beyn\u0259lxalq ekspertl\u0259r Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n iqtisadi art\u0131m tempinin z\u0259ifl\u0259y\u0259c\u0259yini, maliyy\u0259 sabitliyinin t\u0259zyiq alt\u0131nda qalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iddia edirdil\u0259r.<\/p>\n<p>R\u0259smi qurumlar\u0131n m\u0259lumatlar\u0131ndan bel\u0259 q\u0259na\u0259t\u0259 g\u0259lm\u0259k olur ki, bu ilin ilk on ay\u0131 \u0259rzind\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycan iqtisadiyyat\u0131 \u0259sas\u0259n sabit inki\u015faf dinamikas\u0131n\u0131 qoruyub, lakin art\u0131m tempi \u0259vv\u0259lki ill\u0259rl\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 bir q\u0259d\u0259r z\u0259ifl\u0259yib. D\u00f6vl\u0259t Statistika Komit\u0259sinin v\u0259 Maliyy\u0259 Nazirliyinin a\u00e7\u0131qlamalar\u0131ndan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr ki, iqtisadi f\u0259aliyy\u0259tin \u0259sas istiqam\u0259tl\u0259ri \u00fczr\u0259 m\u0259nz\u0259r\u0259 birm\u0259nal\u0131 deyil: qeyri-neft sektorunda art\u0131m v\u0259 aktivlik m\u00fc\u015fahid\u0259 olunsa da, neft-qaz hasilat\u0131nda azalma tendensiyas\u0131 davam edib. \u0130lin ilk doqquz ay\u0131nda \u00dcmumi Daxili M\u0259hsul 95 milyard manat\u0131 \u00f6t\u00fcb v\u0259 \u00f6t\u0259n ilin eyni d\u00f6vr\u00fcn\u0259 nisb\u0259t\u0259n t\u0259xmin\u0259n 1,3 faiz art\u0131b. Neft-qaz sektorunda 1,9 faiz azalma ba\u015f verib, qeyri-neft-qaz sektorunda is\u0259 2,9 faiz art\u0131m qeyd\u0259 al\u0131n\u0131b. \u00dcDM strukturunda s\u0259naye 34 faizd\u0259n bir q\u0259d\u0259r \u00e7ox paya malik olub, k\u0259nd t\u0259s\u0259rr\u00fcfat\u0131, tikinti v\u0259 ticar\u0259t sah\u0259l\u0259ri d\u0259 iqtisadi aktivliyin \u0259sas istiqam\u0259tl\u0259ri kimi \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131x\u0131b. R\u0259smi m\u0259lumatlara \u0259sas\u0259n, k\u0259nd t\u0259s\u0259rr\u00fcfat\u0131 m\u0259hsullar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0259cmi t\u0259xmin\u0259n 4 faiz art\u0131b, heyvandarl\u0131q v\u0259 bitki\u00e7ilikd\u0259 m\u0259hsuldarl\u0131q g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259ri yax\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131b.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0130nflyasiya s\u0259viyy\u0259si il \u0259rzind\u0259 n\u0259zar\u0259td\u0259 saxlan\u0131l\u0131b. Yanvar-avqust aylar\u0131nda illik inflyasiya g\u00f6st\u0259ricisi 5,6 faiz t\u0259\u015fkil edib. \u018frzaq m\u0259hsullar\u0131nda 6,6 faiz, qeyri-\u0259rzaq mallar\u0131nda 2,6 faiz, xidm\u0259tl\u0259rd\u0259 is\u0259 6,9 faiz art\u0131m qeyd\u0259 al\u0131n\u0131b. Avqust ay\u0131na q\u0259d\u0259r inflyasiya 4,9 faiz\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r enib ki, bu da qiym\u0259t sabitliyinin m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 qorundu\u011funu g\u00f6st\u0259rir.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u018fhalinin g\u0259lirl\u0259rin\u0259 g\u0259ldikd\u0259 is\u0259 ilin ilk s\u0259kkiz ay\u0131nda adamba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015f\u0259n g\u0259lir 4 935 manat s\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259 olub, bu da \u00f6t\u0259n ilin eyni d\u00f6vr\u00fc il\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 6,7 faiz art\u0131m dem\u0259kdir. P\u0259rak\u0259nd\u0259 ticar\u0259t d\u00f6vriyy\u0259si 40 milyard manat\u0131 ke\u00e7ib v\u0259 4,3 faizlik art\u0131m qeyd\u0259 al\u0131n\u0131b. Bu, daxili t\u0259l\u0259bin v\u0259 istehlak bazar\u0131n\u0131n sabit qald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6st\u0259r\u0259n amill\u0259rd\u0259n biridir.<\/p>\n<p>B\u0259s 2025-ci ilin son doqquz-on ay\u0131 \u0259rzind\u0259 reall\u0131q n\u0259d\u0259n ibar\u0259t oldu? \u0130lin \u0259vv\u0259lind\u0259 veril\u0259n bu proqnozlar n\u0259 d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc do\u011frultdu? Haz\u0131rda Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n \u0259rzaq t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizliyi hans\u0131 s\u0259viyy\u0259d\u0259dir, iqtisadi art\u0131m dayan\u0131ql\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 qoruyubmu? Neftin qiym\u0259tl\u0259rind\u0259 hans\u0131 tendensiyalar m\u00fc\u015fahid\u0259 olunur v\u0259 ilin qalan d\u00f6vr\u00fc \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn inflyasiya g\u00f6zl\u0259ntil\u0259ri n\u0259yi g\u00f6st\u0259rir?<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.musavat.com\/news\/images\/GUGU\/%C4%B1l\/Fikr%C9%99t%20yeni.jpeg\" alt=\"Fikr\u0259t yeni.jpeg (153 KB)\" width=\"800\" height=\"519\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Fikr\u0259t Yusifov\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Sabiq maliyy\u0259 naziri, professor Fikr\u0259t Yusifov m\u00f6vzu il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 \u201cYeni M\u00fcsavat\u201da fikrini b\u00f6l\u00fc\u015f\u00fcb:<\/strong>\u00a0\u201cCari ilin 10 ay\u0131n\u0131n iqtisadi yekunlar\u0131ndan noyabr ay\u0131n\u0131n ortalar\u0131nda dan\u0131\u015fa bil\u0259rik. Bu g\u00fcn\u0259 d\u00f6vl\u0259tin r\u0259smi statisitikas\u0131n\u0131n t\u0259qdim etdiyi g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259r 2025-ci ilin 9 ay\u0131n\u0131n yekunlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6z\u00fcnd\u0259 \u0259ks etdirir. Az\u0259rbaycan h\u00f6kum\u0259ti 2025-ci ild\u0259 \u00dcDM-in 3 % artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131b. D\u00f6vl\u0259t Statistika Komit\u0259sinin yayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 r\u0259smi m\u0259lumatlara g\u00f6r\u0259 bu ilin yanvar-sentyabr aylar\u0131nda \u00f6lk\u0259 iqtisadiyyat\u0131 c\u0259mi 1,3 % art\u0131b. Bu cari il \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn h\u00f6kum\u0259tin proqnozla\u015fd\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0259viyy\u0259d\u0259n 2,3 d\u0259f\u0259 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6st\u0259ricidir. \u0130qtisadiyyatda n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259 tutulan art\u0131m proqnozlar\u0131n\u0131n icras\u0131ndak\u0131 problem ilk n\u00f6vb\u0259d\u0259 \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259 neftin hasilat\u0131n\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259si il\u0259 \u0259laq\u0259l\u0259ndirilm\u0259lidir. Bel\u0259 ki, hesabat d\u00f6vr\u00fcnd\u0259 \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259 \u0259mt\u0259\u0259lik neft hasilat\u0131 \u00f6t\u0259n ilin eyni d\u00f6vr\u00fc il\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 4,6% a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcb. Biz bu ilin D\u00f6vl\u0259t B\u00fcdc\u0259sind\u0259 neftin bir barel \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn qiym\u0259tl\u0259rini 70 dollardan, g\u0259l\u0259n il \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn is\u0259 65 dollardan g\u00f6t\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Bu g\u00fcn d\u00fcnya bazarlar\u0131nda neftin bir barelinin qiym\u0259ti 60-65 dollar aras\u0131nda d\u0259yi\u015fir. G\u0259l\u0259n il d\u00fcnya bazarlar\u0131nda bu qiym\u0259tl\u0259rin daha k\u0259skin azalaca\u011f\u0131, y\u0259ni onun 45-50 dollar s\u0259viyy\u0259sin\u0259 d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259si g\u00f6zl\u0259nilir. Bu is\u0259 neft \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259ri \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn olduqca t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259lidir. Ona g\u00f6r\u0259 h\u00f6kum\u0259t neftin qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin \u0259n az h\u0259ddi ssenarisin\u0259 d\u0259 indid\u0259n haz\u0131r olmal\u0131d\u0131r. AB\u015e S\u0259udiyy\u0259 c\u00fctl\u00fcy\u00fc art\u0131q bu m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259d\u0259 raz\u0131l\u0131q \u0259ld\u0259 edibl\u0259r v\u0259 d\u00fcnya bazarlar\u0131nda neftin qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259sini t\u0259min ed\u0259c\u0259k konkret add\u0131mlar atmaqdad\u0131lar\u201d.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Professor \u0259lav\u0259 edib ki, \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259 \u0259rzaq t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizliyi\u00a0 sah\u0259sind\u0259 d\u0259 v\u0259ziyy\u0259t \u00fcr\u0259ka\u00e7an deyil:<\/strong>\u00a0 \u201cBiz bu g\u00fcn \u0259halinin istehlak etdiyi \u0259rza\u011f\u0131n 3\/4 hiss\u0259sini xaricd\u0259n idxal hesab\u0131na t\u0259min edirik. M\u0259n d\u0259f\u0259l\u0259rl\u0259 bu bar\u0259d\u0259 fikirl\u0259rimi a\u00e7\u0131qlam\u0131\u015fam. Bir aqrar \u00f6lk\u0259 kimi bu bizi \u00e7ox ciddi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcrm\u0259lidir. Xaricd\u0259n g\u0259tiril\u0259n \u0259rza\u011f\u0131n b\u00f6y\u00fck \u0259ks\u0259riyy\u0259tinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 keyfiyy\u0259td\u0259 olmas\u0131 insanlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n sa\u011flaml\u0131\u011f\u0131na ciddi z\u0259rb\u0259 vurur. Bu g\u00fcn \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259 x\u0259r\u00e7\u0259ng, \u00fcr\u0259k-damar kimi x\u0259st\u0259likl\u0259r \u00e7ox geni\u015f yay\u0131l\u0131bd\u0131r ki, bunun k\u00f6k\u00fcnd\u0259 d\u0259 ilk n\u00f6vb\u0259d\u0259 keyfiyy\u0259tsiz \u0259rzaq dayan\u0131r\u201d.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Afaq M\u0130RAY\u0130Q,<br \/>\n\u201cYeni M\u00fcsavat\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"inner-social-box\">\n<div class=\"subs-in-social subs-whatsapp\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>M\u00fct\u0259x\u0259ssis\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, h\u00f6kum\u0259t neftin qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin \u0259n az h\u0259ddi ssenarisin\u0259 indid\u0259n haz\u0131r olmal\u0131d\u0131r \u00d6t\u0259n ilin \u0259vv\u0259lind\u0259n bir s\u0131ra beyn\u0259lxalq maliyy\u0259 qurumlar\u0131 v\u0259 iqtisadi analitik m\u0259rk\u0259zl\u0259r Az\u0259rbaycan iqtisadiyyat\u0131 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 ehtiyatl\u0131, b\u0259z\u0259n is\u0259 b\u0259dbin proqnozlar ir\u0259li s\u00fcr\u00fcrd\u00fcl\u0259r. Beyn\u0259lxalq Valyuta Fondu (BVF), D\u00fcnya Bank\u0131, Fitch Ratings v\u0259 bir s\u0131ra regional ara\u015fd\u0131rma institutlar\u0131 neft qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin k\u0259skin ucuzla\u015faraq 40 dollar s\u0259viyy\u0259sin\u0259 en\u0259c\u0259yi, bunun n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 d\u00f6vl\u0259t b\u00fcdc\u0259sind\u0259 g\u0259rginlik, inflyasiyan\u0131n y\u00fcks\u0259li\u015fi v\u0259 h\u0259tta milli valyutan\u0131n devalvasiyas\u0131 riskl\u0259rinin arta bil\u0259c\u0259yi bar\u0259d\u0259 x\u0259b\u0259rdarl\u0131qlar etmi\u015fdil\u0259r. H\u0259min d\u00f6vrd\u0259 b\u0259zi beyn\u0259lxalq ekspertl\u0259r Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n iqtisadi art\u0131m tempinin z\u0259ifl\u0259y\u0259c\u0259yini, maliyy\u0259 sabitliyinin t\u0259zyiq alt\u0131nda qalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":832588,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"gutentor_comment":0,"rttpg_featured_image_url":{"full":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/bfc1b44ae34ca7476228d49fe1b5fcc1.jpg",870,500,false],"landscape":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/bfc1b44ae34ca7476228d49fe1b5fcc1.jpg",870,500,false],"portraits":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/bfc1b44ae34ca7476228d49fe1b5fcc1.jpg",870,500,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/bfc1b44ae34ca7476228d49fe1b5fcc1-500x280.jpg",500,280,true],"medium":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/bfc1b44ae34ca7476228d49fe1b5fcc1-635x365.jpg",635,365,true],"large":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/bfc1b44ae34ca7476228d49fe1b5fcc1-840x483.jpg",640,368,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/bfc1b44ae34ca7476228d49fe1b5fcc1.jpg",870,500,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/bfc1b44ae34ca7476228d49fe1b5fcc1.jpg",870,500,false],"post-thumbnail":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/bfc1b44ae34ca7476228d49fe1b5fcc1-240x172.jpg",240,172,true],"advps-thumb-one":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/bfc1b44ae34ca7476228d49fe1b5fcc1.jpg",870,500,false]},"rttpg_author":{"display_name":"V\u00fcsal Rafiqo\u011flu","author_link":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/?author=2"},"rttpg_comment":0,"rttpg_category":"<a href=\"https:\/\/arantv.az\/?cat=19\" rel=\"category\">G\u00fcnd\u0259m<\/a>","rttpg_excerpt":"M\u00fct\u0259x\u0259ssis\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, h\u00f6kum\u0259t neftin qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin \u0259n az h\u0259ddi ssenarisin\u0259 indid\u0259n haz\u0131r olmal\u0131d\u0131r \u00d6t\u0259n ilin \u0259vv\u0259lind\u0259n bir s\u0131ra beyn\u0259lxalq maliyy\u0259 qurumlar\u0131 v\u0259 iqtisadi analitik m\u0259rk\u0259zl\u0259r Az\u0259rbaycan iqtisadiyyat\u0131 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 ehtiyatl\u0131, b\u0259z\u0259n is\u0259 b\u0259dbin proqnozlar ir\u0259li s\u00fcr\u00fcrd\u00fcl\u0259r. Beyn\u0259lxalq Valyuta Fondu (BVF), D\u00fcnya Bank\u0131, Fitch Ratings v\u0259 bir s\u0131ra regional ara\u015fd\u0131rma institutlar\u0131 neft qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin k\u0259skin ucuzla\u015faraq 40 dollar&hellip;","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/832587"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=832587"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/832587\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":832589,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/832587\/revisions\/832589"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/832588"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=832587"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=832587"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=832587"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}