{"id":838119,"date":"2026-01-16T07:49:24","date_gmt":"2026-01-16T03:49:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/?p=838119"},"modified":"2026-01-16T07:49:24","modified_gmt":"2026-01-16T03:49:24","slug":"bakiya-niy%c9%99-qar-yagmadi-yanlis-olan-proqnozun-s%c9%99b%c9%99bl%c9%99ri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/?p=838119","title":{"rendered":"Bak\u0131ya niy\u0259 qar ya\u011fmad\u0131? \u2013 Yanl\u0131\u015f olan proqnozun S\u018fB\u018fBL\u018fR\u0130"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Son g\u00fcnl\u0259r Milli Hidrometeorologiya Xidm\u0259ti Bak\u0131ya qar ya\u011faca\u011f\u0131 bar\u0259d\u0259 x\u0259b\u0259rdarl\u0131qlar yay\u0131b. Nazirlikl\u0259r v\u0259 m\u0259tbuat da v\u0259t\u0259nda\u015flar\u0131 diqq\u0259tli olma\u011fa \u00e7a\u011f\u0131r\u0131b. Lakin proqnozlara baxmayaraq, paytaxtda qar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259sin\u0259 dair he\u00e7 bir \u0259lam\u0259t yoxdur. Bu, c\u0259miyy\u0259td\u0259 meteoroloji proqnozlar\u0131n do\u011frulu\u011fu bar\u0259d\u0259 suallar do\u011furub.<\/p>\n<p>Meteoroloq Cavid H\u00fcseynov \u201cYeni Sabah\u201da a\u00e7\u0131qlamas\u0131nda bildirib ki, Bak\u0131da qar ya\u011fmamas\u0131n\u0131n bir ne\u00e7\u0259 \u0259sas meteoroloji v\u0259 co\u011frafi s\u0259b\u0259bi var:<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBak\u0131da qar ya\u011faca\u011f\u0131 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 g\u00f6zl\u0259ntil\u0259rin tam ger\u00e7\u0259kl\u0259\u015fm\u0259m\u0259sinin bir ne\u00e7\u0259 \u0259sas meteoroloji v\u0259 co\u011frafi s\u0259b\u0259bl\u0259ri var. Cari ilin (2026) yanvar ay\u0131 \u00fczr\u0259 olan m\u0259lumatlar\u0131 v\u0259 \u00fcmumi iqlim x\u00fcsusiyy\u0259tl\u0259rini n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 alsaq havan\u0131n temperaturunun kifay\u0259t q\u0259d\u0259r d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259m\u0259si, X\u0259z\u0259r d\u0259nizinin &#8220;istilik effekti&#8221;, soyuq hava ax\u0131nlar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259t istiqam\u0259tini d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259si, h\u0259m\u00e7inin r\u00fctub\u0259t v\u0259 t\u0259zyiq uy\u011funsuzlu\u011fu Ab\u015feron yar\u0131madas\u0131nda qar ya\u011fmas\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn m\u00fcmk\u00fcn sinoptik \u015f\u0259raitin yaranmamas\u0131na s\u0259b\u0259b olur.<\/p>\n<p>Qar\u0131n yer\u0259 \u00e7atmas\u0131 v\u0259 \u00f6rt\u00fck yaratmas\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn t\u0259kc\u0259 buludlarda temperaturun a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 olmas\u0131 kifay\u0259t etmir, yer s\u0259thin\u0259 yax\u0131n atmosfer qatlar\u0131nda temperatur 0\u00b0C v\u0259 ya daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 olmal\u0131d\u0131r. Yanvar\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda Bak\u0131da temperatur \u0259sas\u0259n 2-7\u00b0C (h\u0259tta b\u0259zi g\u00fcnl\u0259rd\u0259 10-15\u00b0C-d\u0259k) isti m\u00fc\u015fahid\u0259 olundu\u011fu \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn ya\u011f\u0131nt\u0131lar qar yox, sulu qar v\u0259 ya \u00e7iskinli ya\u011f\u0131\u015f \u015f\u0259klind\u0259 m\u00fc\u015fahid\u0259 edilib\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>O, h\u0259m\u00e7inin bildirib ki, Bak\u0131 liman \u015f\u0259h\u0259ri oldu\u011fu \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn X\u0259z\u0259r d\u0259nizi q\u0131\u015fda istilik akkumulyatoru rolunu oynay\u0131r:<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBak\u0131 liman \u015f\u0259h\u0259ri oldu\u011fu \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn X\u0259z\u0259r d\u0259nizi q\u0131\u015fda istilik akkumulyatoru rolunu oynay\u0131r. D\u0259niz suyu gec soyudu\u011fu \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn sahil zola\u011f\u0131nda havan\u0131 m\u00fclayiml\u0259\u015fdirir. Bu &#8220;istilik yast\u0131\u011f\u0131&#8221; \u015fimaldan g\u0259l\u0259n soyuq hava k\u00fctl\u0259l\u0259rinin Bak\u0131ya \u00e7atana q\u0259d\u0259r q\u0131zmas\u0131na s\u0259b\u0259b olur, n\u0259tic\u0259d\u0259 daxili rayonlara qar ya\u011fsa da, Bak\u0131da bu, ya\u011f\u0131\u015fla \u0259v\u0259zl\u0259nir.<\/p>\n<p>Proqnozlarda qar g\u00f6zl\u0259nils\u0259 d\u0259, b\u0259z\u0259n son anda hava k\u00fctl\u0259l\u0259rinin trayektoriyas\u0131 d\u0259yi\u015fir. M\u0259s\u0259l\u0259n, yanvar\u0131n 11-13-\u00fc \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259 tutulan soyuq dal\u011fas\u0131 zaman\u0131 c\u0259nub-q\u0259rb k\u00fcl\u0259kl\u0259rinin \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fck t\u0259\u015fkil etm\u0259si v\u0259 ya soyuq c\u0259bh\u0259nin daha \u00e7ox da\u011fl\u0131q rayonlara y\u00f6n\u0259lm\u0259si paytaxtda qar\u0131n ya\u011fmas\u0131na mane olub.<\/p>\n<p>Qar ya\u011fmas\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn eyni vaxtda \u00fc\u00e7 amil birl\u0259\u015fm\u0259lidir: kifay\u0259t q\u0259d\u0259r soyuq hava, y\u00fcks\u0259k r\u00fctub\u0259t v\u0259 uy\u011fun atmosfer t\u0259zyiqi. Yanvar ay\u0131n\u0131n b\u0259zi g\u00fcnl\u0259rind\u0259 soyuq olsa da, hava k\u00fctl\u0259l\u0259ri az r\u00fctub\u0259tli, b\u0259z\u0259n is\u0259 \u0259ksin\u0259, r\u00fctub\u0259t olsa da hava \u00e7ox m\u00fclayim ke\u00e7ib.<\/p>\n<p>Qar\u0131n ya\u011fmamas\u0131n\u0131n \u0259sas s\u0259b\u0259bi proqnozun yanl\u0131\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 deyil, Bak\u0131 \u015f\u0259h\u0259rinin iqlim \u015f\u0259raiti il\u0259 \u0259laq\u0259dar olaraq soyuq hava c\u0259bh\u0259sinin d\u0259niz \u00fcz\u0259rind\u0259 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc itirm\u0259sidir\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Meteroloqun m\u0259lumat\u0131na g\u00f6r\u0259, proqnozlar fevral\u0131n ortalar\u0131nda havalar\u0131n soyuq ke\u00e7m\u0259si v\u0259 qar \u00f6rt\u00fcy\u00fcn\u00fcn yaranma ehtimal\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6st\u0259rir:<\/p>\n<p>\u201cYanvar ay\u0131n\u0131n 16-dan 22-d\u0259k Bak\u0131da havan\u0131n yenid\u0259n soyuyaca\u011f\u0131, sulu qar v\u0259 z\u0259if qar ehtimal\u0131n\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6zl\u0259nilir.<\/p>\n<p>Uzunm\u00fcdd\u0259tli proqnozlar fevral ay\u0131n\u0131n ortalar\u0131nda (15-22 aras\u0131) havalar\u0131n soyuq ke\u00e7m\u0259si v\u0259 qar \u00f6rt\u00fcy\u00fcn\u00fcn yaranma ehtimal\u0131n\u0131n oldu\u011funu g\u00f6st\u0259rir.<\/p>\n<p>Hava proqnozu modell\u0259ri (ECMWF, GFS, ICON v\u0259 s.) Bak\u0131n\u0131 sad\u0259c\u0259 x\u0259rit\u0259d\u0259 bir n\u00f6qt\u0259 kimi g\u00f6rm\u00fcr. M\u00fcasir r\u0259q\u0259msal proqnozla\u015fd\u0131rma sisteml\u0259ri Bak\u0131n\u0131n co\u011frafi v\u0259 iqlim m\u00fcr\u0259kk\u0259bliyini n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 almaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn Bak\u0131n\u0131n s\u0259thini f\u0259rqli parametrl\u0259rl\u0259 t\u0259svir edir. M\u0259s\u0259l\u0259n, Ab\u015feron yar\u0131madas\u0131n\u0131n quru, yar\u0131ms\u0259hra torpa\u011f\u0131 il\u0259 \u015f\u0259h\u0259rin beton binalar\u0131 (asfalt) aras\u0131ndak\u0131 f\u0259rq n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 al\u0131n\u0131r. Bak\u0131n\u0131n m\u0259rk\u0259zind\u0259ki tikilil\u0259rin g\u00fcnd\u00fcz istiliyi udub, gec\u0259 yava\u015f buraxaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (\u015f\u0259h\u0259rin k\u0259nar\u0131ndan 2-4\u00b0C daha isti olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131) riyazi olaraq hesablay\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>X\u0259z\u0259r d\u0259nizinin suyunun temperaturu modell\u0259r \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u0259n m\u00fch\u00fcm daxilolma m\u0259lumat\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Modell\u0259r d\u0259niz \u00fcz\u0259rind\u0259ki r\u00fctub\u0259tin \u015fimal k\u00fcl\u0259yi (&#8220;X\u0259zri&#8221;) il\u0259 \u015f\u0259h\u0259r\u0259 n\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r &#8220;da\u015f\u0131naca\u011f\u0131n\u0131&#8221; simulyasiya edir. \u018fg\u0259r d\u0259niz suyu istidirs\u0259 (m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259n, yanvar ay\u0131nda 8-10\u00b0C), model avtomatik olaraq bu istiliyin ya\u011fan qar\u0131 yer\u0259 \u00e7atmadan sulu qara \u00e7evir\u0259c\u0259yini t\u0259xmin edir.<\/p>\n<p>Bak\u0131n\u0131n amfiteatr formas\u0131 (d\u0259niz s\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 olan sahil hiss\u0259si v\u0259 h\u00fcnd\u00fcr s\u0131ld\u0131r\u0131ml\u0131 t\u0259p\u0259l\u0259ri) modell\u0259rd\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259klik f\u0259rqi kimi qeyd olunur.<\/p>\n<p>H\u0259m\u00e7inin, mikroiqlim f\u0259rql\u0259ri n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 al\u0131n\u0131r M\u0259s\u0259l\u0259n, &#8220;Badamdar&#8221; v\u0259 ya &#8220;Yasamal&#8221;da qar\u0131n, &#8220;Sahil&#8221; metrosu \u0259traf\u0131nda is\u0259 ya\u011f\u0131\u015f ya\u011fmas\u0131 fakt\u0131 modelin h\u0259min n\u00f6qt\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259ki y\u00fcks\u0259klik (h\u00fcnd\u00fcrl\u00fck) m\u0259lumatlar\u0131n\u0131 f\u0259rqli emal etm\u0259sind\u0259n ir\u0259li g\u0259lir.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00fct\u00fcn bu m\u00fcasir proqnoz v\u0259 hesablamalara baxmayaraq, X\u0259z\u0259r d\u0259nizi \u00e7ox d\u0259yi\u015fk\u0259n bir faktor oldu\u011fundan, b\u0259z\u0259n model d\u0259nizin buxarlanma g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc v\u0259 ya k\u00fcl\u0259yin g\u0259tirdiyi soyuq k\u00fctl\u0259nin &#8220;r\u00fctub\u0259tlik d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259sini&#8221; 1% s\u0259hv hesablad\u0131qda bel\u0259, Bak\u0131da g\u00f6zl\u0259nil\u0259n qar \u00e7iskinli ya\u011f\u0131\u015fla \u0259v\u0259zl\u0259nir\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Son g\u00fcnl\u0259r Milli Hidrometeorologiya Xidm\u0259ti Bak\u0131ya qar ya\u011faca\u011f\u0131 bar\u0259d\u0259 x\u0259b\u0259rdarl\u0131qlar yay\u0131b. Nazirlikl\u0259r v\u0259 m\u0259tbuat da v\u0259t\u0259nda\u015flar\u0131 diqq\u0259tli olma\u011fa \u00e7a\u011f\u0131r\u0131b. Lakin proqnozlara baxmayaraq, paytaxtda qar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259sin\u0259 dair he\u00e7 bir \u0259lam\u0259t yoxdur. Bu, c\u0259miyy\u0259td\u0259 meteoroloji proqnozlar\u0131n do\u011frulu\u011fu bar\u0259d\u0259 suallar do\u011furub. Meteoroloq Cavid H\u00fcseynov \u201cYeni Sabah\u201da a\u00e7\u0131qlamas\u0131nda bildirib ki, Bak\u0131da qar ya\u011fmamas\u0131n\u0131n bir ne\u00e7\u0259 \u0259sas meteoroloji v\u0259 co\u011frafi s\u0259b\u0259bi var: \u201cBak\u0131da qar ya\u011faca\u011f\u0131 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 g\u00f6zl\u0259ntil\u0259rin tam ger\u00e7\u0259kl\u0259\u015fm\u0259m\u0259sinin bir ne\u00e7\u0259 \u0259sas meteoroloji v\u0259 co\u011frafi s\u0259b\u0259bl\u0259ri var. Cari ilin (2026) yanvar ay\u0131 \u00fczr\u0259 olan m\u0259lumatlar\u0131 v\u0259 \u00fcmumi iqlim x\u00fcsusiyy\u0259tl\u0259rini n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 alsaq havan\u0131n temperaturunun kifay\u0259t&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":838120,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"gutentor_comment":0,"rttpg_featured_image_url":{"full":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/3a3414af9c8586bd1e8b74aa7145d054.jpg",750,422,false],"landscape":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/3a3414af9c8586bd1e8b74aa7145d054.jpg",750,422,false],"portraits":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/3a3414af9c8586bd1e8b74aa7145d054.jpg",750,422,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/3a3414af9c8586bd1e8b74aa7145d054-500x280.jpg",500,280,true],"medium":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/3a3414af9c8586bd1e8b74aa7145d054-649x365.jpg",649,365,true],"large":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/3a3414af9c8586bd1e8b74aa7145d054.jpg",640,360,false],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/3a3414af9c8586bd1e8b74aa7145d054.jpg",750,422,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/3a3414af9c8586bd1e8b74aa7145d054.jpg",750,422,false],"post-thumbnail":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/3a3414af9c8586bd1e8b74aa7145d054-240x172.jpg",240,172,true],"advps-thumb-one":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/3a3414af9c8586bd1e8b74aa7145d054.jpg",750,422,false]},"rttpg_author":{"display_name":"V\u00fcsal Rafiqo\u011flu","author_link":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/?author=2"},"rttpg_comment":0,"rttpg_category":"<a href=\"https:\/\/arantv.az\/?cat=1\" rel=\"category\">C\u0259miyy\u0259t<\/a>","rttpg_excerpt":"Son g\u00fcnl\u0259r Milli Hidrometeorologiya Xidm\u0259ti Bak\u0131ya qar ya\u011faca\u011f\u0131 bar\u0259d\u0259 x\u0259b\u0259rdarl\u0131qlar yay\u0131b. Nazirlikl\u0259r v\u0259 m\u0259tbuat da v\u0259t\u0259nda\u015flar\u0131 diqq\u0259tli olma\u011fa \u00e7a\u011f\u0131r\u0131b. Lakin proqnozlara baxmayaraq, paytaxtda qar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259sin\u0259 dair he\u00e7 bir \u0259lam\u0259t yoxdur. Bu, c\u0259miyy\u0259td\u0259 meteoroloji proqnozlar\u0131n do\u011frulu\u011fu bar\u0259d\u0259 suallar do\u011furub. Meteoroloq Cavid H\u00fcseynov \u201cYeni Sabah\u201da a\u00e7\u0131qlamas\u0131nda bildirib ki, Bak\u0131da qar ya\u011fmamas\u0131n\u0131n bir ne\u00e7\u0259 \u0259sas meteoroloji v\u0259 co\u011frafi&hellip;","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/838119"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=838119"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/838119\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":838121,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/838119\/revisions\/838121"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/838120"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=838119"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=838119"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=838119"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}