{"id":848233,"date":"2026-04-15T17:54:20","date_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:54:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/?p=848233"},"modified":"2026-04-15T17:54:20","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:54:20","slug":"olk%c9%99-iqtisadiyyatinda-kritik-donus-150-milyardliq-udm-realdirmi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/?p=848233","title":{"rendered":"\u00d6lk\u0259 iqtisadiyyat\u0131nda KR\u0130T\u0130K d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f \u2013 150 milyardl\u0131q \u00dcDM reald\u0131rm\u0131?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Planl\u0131 transformasiya il\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycan iqtisadiyyat\u0131 2035-ci il\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r 150 milyard dollara q\u0259d\u0259r arta bil\u0259r. Musavat.com x\u0259b\u0259r verir ki, bu proqnoz\u00a0beyn\u0259lxalq konsaltinq \u015firk\u0259ti \u201cOliverWyman Group\u201dun hesabat\u0131nda yer al\u0131b.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Qeyd edilib ki, apar\u0131lan t\u0259hlil\u0259 \u0259sas\u0259n, Az\u0259rbaycan iqtisadiyyat\u0131 kritik d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f n\u00f6qt\u0259sind\u0259dir v\u0259 m\u00f6vcud resurslar, strateji m\u00f6vqe v\u0259 struktur islahatlar say\u0259sind\u0259 n\u00f6vb\u0259ti onillikd\u0259 \u00dcDM-i iki d\u0259f\u0259 art\u0131rmaq imkan\u0131na malikdir.<\/p>\n<p>Hesabatda qeyd olunur ki, 2035-ci il\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r 150 milyard dollarl\u0131q iqtisadiyyata \u00e7atmaq t\u0259sad\u00fcfi deyil, bu, m\u00f6vcud \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fckl\u0259r\u0259 \u0259saslanan planl\u0131 v\u0259 strukturla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f transformasiya n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr.<\/p>\n<p>Eyni zamanda, turizm sektorunun inki\u015faf\u0131 x\u00fcsusi vur\u011fulan\u0131r. 2024-c\u00fc ild\u0259 \u00f6lk\u0259y\u0259 2,6 milyon turist g\u0259ldiyi v\u0259 t\u0259xmin\u0259n 2 milyard dollar g\u0259lir \u0259ld\u0259 olundu\u011fu bildirils\u0259 d\u0259, bu g\u00f6st\u0259ricinin potensialdan xeyli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011fu qeyd edilir. Hesabata g\u00f6r\u0259, 2035-ci il\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r turist say\u0131n\u0131 10\u201312 milyona \u00e7atd\u0131rmaq m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>\u201cOliverWyman&#8221; t\u0259hlil\u00e7il\u0259rin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, Az\u0259rbaycan yaln\u0131z resurs ixrac ed\u0259n \u00f6lk\u0259 deyil, ideya, xidm\u0259t v\u0259 maliyy\u0259 ax\u0131nlar\u0131 yaradan regional \u201cbazar qurucu\u201d roluna ke\u00e7\u0259 bil\u0259r.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Qeyd ed\u0259k ki, 2025-ci ild\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycanda\u00a0129,1 milyard<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>manatl\u0131q v\u0259 ya 2024-c\u00fc ill\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 1,4 faiz \u00e7ox \u00fcmumi<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>daxili m\u0259hsul istehsal olunub. Bu, indiki m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259 il\u0259 t\u0259xmin\u0259n 75 milyard dollar dem\u0259kdir. \u00a0\u201cOliverWyman&#8221;\u0131n proqnozu bu h\u0259cmin n\u00f6vb\u0259ti 10 ild\u0259 iki d\u0259f\u0259 artmas\u0131n\u0131 ehtiva edir.<\/p>\n<p>Qeyd ed\u0259k ki, 2015-ci ild\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycanda \u00dcDM istehsal\u0131 54,4 milyard manata b\u0259rab\u0259r olub. H\u0259min ilin 21 fevral\u0131ndan 22 dekabr\u0131na q\u0259d\u0259r q\u00fcvv\u0259d\u0259 olan dollar\/manat m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259si(1 dollar = 1,05 manat) il\u0259 bu, 51 milyard dollardan yuxar\u0131d\u0131r. Y\u0259ni statistik r\u0259q\u0259ml\u0259r son 10 ild\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycanda \u00dcDM-in nominal ifad\u0259d\u0259 47 faiz artd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6st\u0259rir.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6t\u0259n m\u00fcdd\u0259t \u0259rzind\u0259 ged\u0259n s\u00fcr\u0259tli inflyasiya, manat\u0131n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259sinin real d\u0259y\u0259rini ifad\u0259 etm\u0259y\u0259r\u0259k faktiki olaraq M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n inzibati qaydada sabit saxlanmas\u0131, \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259 neft hasilat\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131(2015-ci ild\u0259ki 41,6 milyon tondan 2025-ci ild\u0259 27,7 milyon tona d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcb-red.) v\u0259 sair amill\u0259ri n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 alsaq, real \u00dcDM art\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n 47 faizd\u0259n xeyli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u0259m\u0259k olar. Bu art\u0131mda qaz hasilat\u0131n\u0131n 2015-ci ild\u0259ki 29 milyard kubmetrd\u0259n 2025-ci ild\u0259 52 milyard kubmetr\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r artmas\u0131 da x\u00fcsusi rol oynay\u0131b.<\/p>\n<p>Bu ilin ilk r\u00fcb\u00fcnd\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycanda \u00dcDM-in azalmas\u0131 qeyd\u0259 al\u0131n\u0131b. D\u00f6vl\u0259t Statistika Komit\u0259sinin m\u0259lumat\u0131na \u0259sas\u0259n 2026-c\u0131 ilin yanvar-mart aylar\u0131nda \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259 29 milyard 703,2 milyon manatl\u0131q \u00a0\u00fcmumi daxili m\u0259hsul (\u00dcDM) istehsal olunub. Bu, \u00f6t\u0259n ilin eyni d\u00f6vr\u00fc il\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 real ifad\u0259d\u0259 0,3 faiz azalma dem\u0259kdir. Azalman\u0131n k\u00f6k\u00fcnd\u0259 neft-qaz sektorunda istehsal\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259si dayan\u0131r. Bel\u0259 ki, birinci r\u00fcbd\u0259 iqtisadiyyat\u0131n neft-qaz sektorunda yarad\u0131lan \u0259lav\u0259 d\u0259y\u0259r 1,2 faiz azal\u0131b, qeyri neft-qaz sektorunda is\u0259 0,2 faiz art\u0131b.<\/p>\n<p>G\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fcy\u00fc kimi, \u00dcDM-in t\u0259rkibind\u0259 apar\u0131c\u0131 paya malik neft-qaz sektorundak\u0131 azalma qeyri-neft iqtisadiyyat\u0131ndak\u0131 c\u00fczi art\u0131mla kompensasiya olunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6r\u0259 \u00fcmumi n\u0259tic\u0259d\u0259 m\u0259nfi tendensiya qeyd\u0259 al\u0131n\u0131b. Bel\u0259 bir \u015f\u0259raitd\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycanda n\u00f6vb\u0259ti onillik d\u00f6vrd\u0259 hans\u0131 \u015f\u0259rtl\u0259r daxilind\u0259 \u00dcDM-in ikiqat art\u0131m\u0131na nail olmaq m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr?<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0130qtisad\u00e7\u0131 Eld\u0259niz \u018fmirovun dediyin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, proqnozun n\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r real oldu\u011funu bilm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn riyazi hesablanma apar\u0131lmas\u0131 vacibdir:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.musavat.com\/news\/images\/EM-FOTO\/%D0%9D%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0%D1%8F%D0%9F%D0%B0%D0%BF%D0%BA%D0%B0\/WhatsApp%20Image%202026-04-15%20at%2016.38.04.jpeg\" alt=\"WhatsApp Image 2026-04-15 at 16.38.04.jpeg (64 KB)\" width=\"700\" height=\"514\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u201cN\u0259z\u0259ri riyazi hesablamada biz g\u00f6r\u0259rik ki, 10 ild\u0259 \u00dcDM-in 2 d\u0259f\u0259 artmas\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn illik orta art\u0131m 7,2 faiz olmal\u0131d\u0131r. D\u00fcnyada bel\u0259 bir art\u0131m tempinin oldu\u011funa dair m\u0259nd\u0259 bel\u0259 m\u0259lumat yoxdur. M\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr ki, hans\u0131sa bir il 15-20 faizlik art\u0131m olsun, sonra daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131, amma bunun da \u00f6z riskl\u0259ri var: neft-qaz hasilat\u0131, b\u00fcdc\u0259 g\u0259lirl\u0259ri, investisiyalar\u0131n y\u00f6nl\u0259ndirilm\u0259si v\u0259 sair. Y\u0259ni 10 ild\u0259 ikiqat \u00dcDM art\u0131m\u0131 n\u0259z\u0259ri bax\u0131mdan m\u00fcmk\u00fcn, amma faktiki olaraq \u00e7ox \u00e7\u0259tindir. Bunun \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn iqtisadiyyat\u0131n k\u0259skinb transformasiyas\u0131 olmal\u0131d\u0131r: tutal\u0131m ki, xammal ixrac\u0131ndan haz\u0131r m\u0259hsul ixrac\u0131na ke\u00e7irik, y\u00fcks\u0259k texnologiyalar\u0131n iqtisadiyyatda pay\u0131n\u0131 \u00fcst\u00fcn m\u00f6vqey\u0259 \u00e7\u0131xard\u0131r\u0131q, xidm\u0259t sektoru y\u00fcks\u0259k art\u0131m g\u00f6st\u0259rir, kimya, aqrar s\u0259naye k\u0259skin \u00a0art\u0131r v\u0259 sair. \u00a0Y\u0259ni b\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar\u0131n ham\u0131s\u0131 birlikd\u0259, kompleks \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 getm\u0259lidir ki, qeyd olunan proqnoz do\u011frulsun\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130qtisad\u00e7\u0131ya g\u00f6r\u0259, b\u00fct\u00fcn bu kompleks prosesl\u0259rin \u00f6z\u00fc o zaman real effekt ver\u0259 bil\u0259r ki, x\u0259rcl\u0259m\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259 tam \u015f\u0259ffafl\u0131q, \u015f\u0259ffaf hesabatl\u0131l\u0131q t\u0259min olunsun: \u201cY\u0259ni iqtisadi islahat, transformasiya ist\u0259yi, bunun \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn pullar\u0131n olmas\u0131 i\u015fin yar\u0131s\u0131d\u0131r, qalan yar\u0131s\u0131 is\u0259 h\u0259min pullar\u0131n d\u00fczg\u00fcn istiqam\u0259tl\u0259ndirilm\u0259si, d\u00fczg\u00fcn v\u0259 \u015f\u0259ffaf x\u0259rcl\u0259nm\u0259sidir. \u018fks halda, \u0259n yax\u015f\u0131 proqram olsa bel\u0259, u\u011fur \u0259ld\u0259 etm\u0259k m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmayacaq\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>\u018fmirov bildirir ki, bu sah\u0259d\u0259 bir deyil, bir ne\u00e7\u0259 faktor m\u00fch\u00fcm rol oynayacaq: \u201c\u018fg\u0259r biz ka\u011f\u0131z-q\u0259l\u0259m g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcb 10 ild\u0259 \u00dcDM-i iki d\u0259f\u0259 art\u0131rmaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn laz\u0131m olan \u015f\u0259rtl\u0259ri yazas\u0131 olsaq, 50-d\u0259n yuxar\u0131 bel\u0259 \u015f\u0259rt qeyd etm\u0259li olar\u0131q. Onlar\u0131n 90 faizi yerin\u0259 yetirilib, 10 faizi icra olunmasa, ikid\u0259f\u0259lik \u00dcDM art\u0131m\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmayacaq. Bu bax\u0131mdan, m\u0259n bu proqnozun realla\u015fmas\u0131 ehtimal\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcks\u0259k d\u0259y\u0259rl\u0259ndirmir\u0259m, ona \u00e7ox optimist qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259 kimi bax\u0131ram\u201d.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Musavat.com<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Planl\u0131 transformasiya il\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycan iqtisadiyyat\u0131 2035-ci il\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r 150 milyard dollara q\u0259d\u0259r arta bil\u0259r. Musavat.com x\u0259b\u0259r verir ki, bu proqnoz\u00a0beyn\u0259lxalq konsaltinq \u015firk\u0259ti \u201cOliverWyman Group\u201dun hesabat\u0131nda yer al\u0131b. Qeyd edilib ki, apar\u0131lan t\u0259hlil\u0259 \u0259sas\u0259n, Az\u0259rbaycan iqtisadiyyat\u0131 kritik d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f n\u00f6qt\u0259sind\u0259dir v\u0259 m\u00f6vcud resurslar, strateji m\u00f6vqe v\u0259 struktur islahatlar say\u0259sind\u0259 n\u00f6vb\u0259ti onillikd\u0259 \u00dcDM-i iki d\u0259f\u0259 art\u0131rmaq imkan\u0131na malikdir. Hesabatda qeyd olunur ki, 2035-ci il\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r 150 milyard dollarl\u0131q iqtisadiyyata \u00e7atmaq t\u0259sad\u00fcfi deyil, bu, m\u00f6vcud \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fckl\u0259r\u0259 \u0259saslanan planl\u0131 v\u0259 strukturla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f transformasiya n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. Eyni zamanda, turizm sektorunun inki\u015faf\u0131 x\u00fcsusi vur\u011fulan\u0131r. 2024-c\u00fc ild\u0259 \u00f6lk\u0259y\u0259 2,6&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":848234,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"gutentor_comment":0,"rttpg_featured_image_url":{"full":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/ffeaa13b8aeb5a32b87bdf08fff9280f.jpg",870,500,false],"landscape":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/ffeaa13b8aeb5a32b87bdf08fff9280f.jpg",870,500,false],"portraits":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/ffeaa13b8aeb5a32b87bdf08fff9280f.jpg",870,500,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/ffeaa13b8aeb5a32b87bdf08fff9280f-500x280.jpg",500,280,true],"medium":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/ffeaa13b8aeb5a32b87bdf08fff9280f-635x365.jpg",635,365,true],"large":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/ffeaa13b8aeb5a32b87bdf08fff9280f-840x483.jpg",640,368,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/ffeaa13b8aeb5a32b87bdf08fff9280f.jpg",870,500,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/ffeaa13b8aeb5a32b87bdf08fff9280f.jpg",870,500,false],"post-thumbnail":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/ffeaa13b8aeb5a32b87bdf08fff9280f-240x172.jpg",240,172,true],"advps-thumb-one":["https:\/\/arantv.az\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/ffeaa13b8aeb5a32b87bdf08fff9280f.jpg",870,500,false]},"rttpg_author":{"display_name":"V\u00fcsal Rafiqo\u011flu","author_link":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/?author=2"},"rttpg_comment":0,"rttpg_category":"<a href=\"https:\/\/arantv.az\/?cat=19\" rel=\"category\">G\u00fcnd\u0259m<\/a>","rttpg_excerpt":"Planl\u0131 transformasiya il\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycan iqtisadiyyat\u0131 2035-ci il\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r 150 milyard dollara q\u0259d\u0259r arta bil\u0259r. Musavat.com x\u0259b\u0259r verir ki, bu proqnoz\u00a0beyn\u0259lxalq konsaltinq \u015firk\u0259ti \u201cOliverWyman Group\u201dun hesabat\u0131nda yer al\u0131b. Qeyd edilib ki, apar\u0131lan t\u0259hlil\u0259 \u0259sas\u0259n, Az\u0259rbaycan iqtisadiyyat\u0131 kritik d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f n\u00f6qt\u0259sind\u0259dir v\u0259 m\u00f6vcud resurslar, strateji m\u00f6vqe v\u0259 struktur islahatlar say\u0259sind\u0259 n\u00f6vb\u0259ti onillikd\u0259 \u00dcDM-i iki d\u0259f\u0259 art\u0131rmaq imkan\u0131na malikdir.&hellip;","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/848233"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=848233"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/848233\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":848236,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/848233\/revisions\/848236"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/848234"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=848233"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=848233"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arantv.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=848233"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}